hankyoreh

By Noh Hyun-woong and Choi Hyun-june, staff reporters
Higher-than-expected use of air conditioning amid unseasonable heat is putting pressure on scarce electricity. This summer, blackouts will be a real possibility in South Korea.
The country’s reserves of electricity dropped to 3.97 million kilowatts at 2:05 on the afternoon of June 20 as midday temperatures reached 33°C (91.4F) in Seoul. It was the second time this year that level was reached. The government typically declares an emergency when reserves fall below 4 million kW.
Fortunately, reserves quickly rebounded above four million kW, allowing the government to escape a crisis.
Last year saw a major blackout in September, but the June electricity reserve never reached a problematic level. This year, it approached emergency levels repeatedly. This raises the possibility of more major blackouts in August, when demand is high, or drastic measures like rolling blackouts.
Short supplies are the primary factor behind the concerns. At the moment, major thermal power plants such as Kori No. 1, Boryeong No. 2, and Samcheonpo No. 2 are offline for maintenance and repairs. So are some nuclear power plants, including the Wolseong No. 1 reactor.
“These power plants are undergoing maintenance ahead of the summer, when electricity demand is at its highest,” explained Jeong Seung-il, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy’s energy industry policy officer. “Once they resume production in July and August, output will go up to about 8 million kW.”
Experts were divided on whether this summer would see another round of blackouts.
“They’re working on the power generation facilities to meet summer demand, but we could have a breakdown at any time, for example with the Wolseong No. 1 reactor, and the uncertainties related to climate change are growing,” said Korea Energy Economics Institute chief researcher Jhung Han-kyung.
Jhung said the unusual emergency levels for early June suggested the possibility of problems coming up if things continue at their current rate.
Kim Jae-chul, a professor of electrical engineering at Soongsil University, expressed concern about the fact that Wolseong No. 1, which is currently under repair, will not be going back online until July. It was initially scheduled to do so in May. Even if all the plants that are now undergoing repairs go back into service in July according to plan, electricity reserves would still stand at just 1.5 million kW. Anything even slightly over predicted consumption levels, or any problem with repairing the plants and getting them up and running again, and blackouts could become a reality.
Jeong Seung-il said consumption could be reduced by about 2 million kW through management measures such as temporarily halting factory operations around 2 p.m., the peak period for electricity use.
“It may also be possible to get through the crisis by spreading summer holidays around rather than everyone taking them in late July and early August,” he said.
Koh Dong-soo of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade said, “If we can’t increase supplies right now, then we have no choice but to weather the crisis through consumption management measures.”
Koh said it may be possible to avert price instability by raising alarm among ordinary consumers by increasing the cost of electricity, while introducing a tiered fee system with higher rates during peak hours.
The government is conducting drills to prepare the public for the possibility of a blackout. Relevant agencies such as the Ministry of Knowledge Economy and National Emergency Management Agency plan to hold a nationwide blackout response exercise for 20 minutes at 2 p.m. on June 21. At that time, reserves of less than 2 million kW will be declared and a siren will sound. Citizens can help avert a blackout by turning off unnecessary air conditioning and lights and refraining from using elevators.
At around 2:10, the rolling outages will be implemented to avoid a large-scale blackout. Organizations and facilities with backup generators can turn those on, while citizens can pull the plugs on their electrical appliances. The alarm is set to end at about 2:20.
Unprecedented outages in September of last year almost led to blackouts at the national level as the electricity reserve dropped to 240,000 kW. The crisis was narrowly averted after rolling blackouts cut power to different regions in turn. Calculated damages were 61 billion won for the 8,962 reported cases alone.
The time is gone when blackouts were a cute occasion for families to gather on the floor around candles. With electricity supplies in question, their management is now an integral part of national disaster management.
　
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