AI and inter-Korean economic cooperation highlighted as top variables of influence

Posted on : 2018-07-28 07:44 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
R&D organizations place their predictions for South Korean economy through 2030

Companies with organizations in place for research and development (R&D) selected artificial intelligence (AI) and inter-Korean economic cooperation as the top variables expected to influence the development of South Korea’s economy, industry, and technology through 2030.

The findings were among those published by the Korea Industrial Technology Association (KOITA) on July 23 from a survey of industry perceptions on the future prospects for industry technology through 2030. For the study, a total of 826 companies with R&D organizations in place were surveyed between June 5 and July 6. The survey adopted a free-response format, with 36 keywords provided as examples by experts in different fields.

As the most important keywords for the areas of economy, industry, and technology through 2030, the companies mentioned AI (31.4 percent) and inter-Korean economic cooperation (23.8 percent), followed by “3D printing/manufacturing revolution” (12.6 percent) and “virtual and augmented reality” (12.3 percent). Six of the top ten keywords represented forms of technology related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), including the Internet of Things in sixth place (9.8 percent), big data in seventh (9.4 percent), and blockchains in ninth (6.9 percent). In addition to inter-Korean economic cooperation, the decline of the productive population was listed as a non-technology area in fifth place (9.9 percent).

Over half the companies surveyed predicted the global economy and South Korean economy would both continue growing through 2030. When asked about the prospects for the global economy, 50.5 percent of companies predicted it would “improve from its present level,” while 50.9 percent predicted the South Korean economy would “improve.” Another 29.2 percent predicted the South Korean economy would stagnate or decline.

Many of the companies said the emergence of South Korean “unicorn companies” (non-listed startups achieving a corporate value of over 1 trillion won [US$880 million] through fast growth) along the lines of Uber, Airbnb, and other businesses responsible for “disruptive innovation” (destroying old markets and creating new ones through products and services based in new ideas and technology) was unlikely.

Just 32.1 percent of companies surveyed said they expected the number of disruptively innovative companies in South Korea to grow by 2030. Among large corporations in particular, just 11.1 percent predicted a rise in disruptively innovative companies, compared to 34.6 percent of medium-sized and 32.7 percent of small companies.

“While companies are optimistic in their predictions for the future economy, there was a clear trend of perceiving potential ‘bright and dark sides’ to the future issues that will affect industry,” KOITA concluded.

The institute also noted, “While technological development through 4IR and inter-Korean economic cooperation are perceived as opportunities, factors such as a decline in the productive population in the near future are perceived as threats.”

“A number of current key industries are predicted to lose competitiveness while new industries are expected to emerge, with rapid technological changes likely to result in a shift toward the R&D format,” it added.

By Kim Hyo-sil, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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