[Column] A new era awaits us in 2022

Posted on : 2022-01-19 17:08 KST Modified on : 2022-01-19 17:08 KST
While the curtain is falling on the unipolar moment of the US, the curtain is rising on a multipolar era
While serving as US president, Donald Trump attends the commencement ceremony of the Coast Guard Academy on May 17, 2017. (AFP/Yonhap News)
While serving as US president, Donald Trump attends the commencement ceremony of the Coast Guard Academy on May 17, 2017. (AFP/Yonhap News)
Suh Jae-jung
Suh Jae-jung
By Suh Jae-jung, professor of political science and international relations at the International Christian University in Tokyo

As the curtain rises on 2022, another era of history draws to a close.

In his reflections on the new year, sociologist Walden Bello proposed that Osama bin Laden and Donald Trump should be seen as bookends for the past two decades.

The 9/11 attacks in 2001 mired the American military in the swamp of the Middle East. That chapter ended with American troops’ inglorious retreat from Afghanistan in 2021.

The US has flaunted its status as the world’s most powerful country since the close of the Cold War, but it couldn’t accomplish its goals in Afghanistan, perhaps the world’s weakest country. That only showed the world that the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes.

While the US has been floundering in the morass of the Middle East, China has been advancing. China got a leg up from US-based transnational capital, which relocated industrial production to China. Meanwhile, the US focused its energy on the financial market and profited handsomely there, at least for a time.

But while China has grown steadily, the US financial market crashed. The fallout hit white workers in the US. They saw their jobs move to China and their wealth evaporate in the financial crisis. Immigrants and minorities were sacrificed on the altar of their discontent, with Donald Trump officiating as high priest. Despite the failure of their attempted insurrection in January 2021, their high priest remains strong, even when out of power, and they still pray fervently for his “second coming.”

As Bello observes, the past two decades have been a time of domestic and foreign troubles typified by bin Laden and Trump. As the US was struggling with these various troubles, the COVID-19 pandemic delivered a mortal blow. Social division had weakened the nation, while liberalism had eroded public health’s powers of resistance and resilience.

Furthermore, political division prevented vaccines from having their full effect. The economic recovery has faltered as large numbers of Americans have been hospitalized or died.

Another problem is that amid the US’ recent efforts to present China as the enemy, cracks have appeared in the world order. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been moving preemptively to widen those cracks. The current crisis in Ukraine is partly an expression of Russian anxiety about the eastward creep of Western military power in the form of NATO, which has nearly reached the Russian border. But it’s also an expression of Russian confidence.

It shows that Russia is no longer the country that was in freefall after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia’s natural gas deposits have given it the economic wherewithal to rattle Western Europe, and it has also fostered enough military strength to keep the world’s attention.

Europe has grown up, too. While appearing to keep pace with the US on China, it’s not above raking in the profits when the opportunity arises. Europe has imposed economic sanctions on Russia but is also strengthening their socio-economic ties. A symbolic step was Germany’s opening of a second natural gas pipeline with Russia despite vociferous opposition from the US.

In short, Europe no longer keeps Russia at arm’s length as it did when Russia belonged to the Soviet Union; rather, it regards Russia as a vital part of Eurasia. Russia’s meeting with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe over the Ukraine crisis offers a glimpse of the future of Europe.

Big moves are also underway in Latin America. The recent election of Gabriel Boric, candidate for a leftist bloc, as president of Chile is emblematic. “If Chile was the cradle of neoliberalism, it will also be its grave,” Boric has said. The man who has promised to make a clean break with neoliberalism crushed his right-wing opponent by 12 percentage points. Argentine President Alberto Fernandez has reached out to the new Chilean president, proposing that they join forces to end inequality in South America. Energized by these victories, the South American left seems poised to gain power in Colombia and Brazil.

The US seems to have lost its edge in its confrontation with North Korea. When the North shot off a series of hypersonic missiles, the US only slapped it with more independent sanctions, with diminishing results.

In addition, the US is having more trouble building international consensus, and that’s not just the fault of China and Russia. Only five countries — the UK, France, Albania, Ireland and Japan — signed onto a statement the US issued just before the UN Security Council met on Jan. 11. The US couldn’t even recruit India, a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), or Brazil, with right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, from among the 10 non-permanent members of the Security Council. Signatures were also withheld not only by Mexico and Norway, but also by Gabon, Ghana, Kenya and the United Arab Emirates.

Of course, evidence of the US’ clear decline shouldn’t be taken to mean the US has fallen. Nor should we lightly assume it has no chance of recovering its strength.

What is clear is the current of history. While the curtain is falling on the unipolar moment of the US, the curtain is rising on a multipolar era. Surely that mighty current ought to guide how we set the coordinates of the Korean Peninsula and East Asia.

Korea’s presidential election is just around the corner.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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