hankyoreh

President Xi Jinping of China (left) and President Vladimir Putin of Russia (right) enter the meeting hall at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Uzbekistan one after the other on Sept. 16. (AP/Yonhap)

If I were asked which bilateral relationship is the most peculiar and difficult to interpret in the world, I might have to say it’s the one between China and Russia.

They were “sibling empires” that once shared the same socialist ideology, then they were rivals that clashed intensely within the same bloc, and now they are “strategic partners” that feel obliged to step up their cooperation in the face of pressure from the US and the rest of the West.

Within these long-term currents of change, there have also been major shifts in their power dynamics. During the Cold War era, the Soviet Union boasted overwhelming influence; now, Russia’s economic scale amounts to only around one-ninth that of China, which has grown to become the world’s second-largest power.

We had the opportunity to witness another major change that has been underway in their relationship since the war in Ukraine began late last February.

On Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Uzbekistan, where the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit was being held.

Xi is awaiting the 20th congress of the Chinese Communist Party where the decision will be made on whether he will be serving a third term, while Putin has found himself in a corner as the situation in Ukraine has recently taken a turn for the worse. Everyone was on tenterhooks waiting to see what sort of things they would be talking about.

It was after 9 pm in Korea when the opening remarks from the summit that had begun earlier that afternoon began making their way into the foreign press. As I read through the remarks shared by the two governments the day after, I could not hold back a deep sigh. The results vividly showed both the desperate situation faced by Putin, who brought disaster on himself with his ill-advised choice to wage war, and the coolness of Xi, who implicitly criticized the decision.

In an international environment where a strategic competition is now underway between the US and China, there was no chance the two sides would disagree on the need for bilateral cooperation. Xi said that China would “cooperate with Russia to perform the leading role of great powers in bringing stability to a world that is mired in chaos.”

But on the topic of Ukraine, he only said that the two sides “support each other in matters that relate to their key interests.” His remarks were cursory and all business; the impression was cold. In effect, China was observing a minimum level of decorum.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was even more direct in his criticisms, stressing that “today’s era is not of war.”

Perhaps there was a sense of disappointment with Russia for recklessly rushing into war and being unable to cope with the consequences. When the Chinese Communist Party’s People Daily went to print on Sept. 16, its front-page story did not focus on the Chinese and Russian leaders, but on Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the president of Uzbekistan.

The front page included three photographs of Xi with Mirziyoyev, but not one of him shaking hands with Putin. Xi and Putin had issued a lengthy joint statement at their meeting on Feb. 4 around the time of the Winter Olympics in Beijing; this time, there was no such statement.

Putin showed that he was busily watching for signs from Beijing. In a fast-changing world, Putin said, “the only thing that remains unchanged is the friendship between Russia and China.” He also expressed thanks for “the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis,” adding that he “understands their questions and concerns” on this matter and would “explain our position” in detail.

Seeing Putin’s show of humility, I realized that the harsh Western economic sanctions resulting from the war have crucially increased Russia’s reliance on China. This is poised to bring about a structural shift in their relationship. At the current rate, Russia may end up downgraded to the status of a second-class state under China’s powerful influence.

I find myself reflecting on South Korea’s situation amid these brutal changes in global politics. President Yoon Suk-yeol, who ostentatiously declared during his election campaign that he would pursue “additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense” deployments, said in a Friday meeting with the person ranked third in China’s power hierarchy that it was “necessary to ensure this does not become a stumbling block to South Korea-China relations.” In effect, he was walking back one of his leading security-related pledges from four months ago.

On the other side, the US is busy disregarding its allies’ interests in favor of “Made in America” propaganda. As a result, it’s become unclear how Yoon should go about the South Korea-Japan summit that he has pursued in the face of widespread criticism. South Korea is now threatened with the prospect of becoming a second-class state too.

The world has entered a new Cold War era. The fates of entire countries can hang on one word from a seemingly insignificant leader.

Even so, the cornered Putin was nonchalant, declining to even take notes when faced with questions from reporters at a press conference that lasted for 30 minutes on Friday. His eyes appeared clear, and his hair remained unruffled.

Yoon is scheduled to appear before the UN General Assembly for the first time. I don’t hold out any big hopes; I only ask that he please refrain from drinking during his schedule so he doesn’t show up to any more press conferences looking disheveled. 

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]