hankyoreh

Movement related to a North Korean missile test was first observed months ago, but the test preparations now seem to be approaching the final stages. The South Korean government is concerned, as well. Analysts say the North’s revamped Taepodong 2 has the ability to cross the Pacific and reach the United States mainland. The atmosphere is one in which the possibility of a full-scale crisis cannot be eliminated. Hard-line stances only cause hard-line responses and make matters worse. One thing is certain: North Korea must stop preparations for a missile launch immediately.

Pyongyang declared early last year that it possesses nuclear weapons. The threat neighboring countries will feel should it fire a long-range missile at this point will be completely unlike when it fired a Taepodong 1 in 1998. The United States and Japan will attempt to enact the strongest possible sanctions and speed up the pace of missile defense (MD). China would have no reason to defend the North at the expense of a showdown with the U.S., and relations between North and South, built up over recent years with much difficulty, would be dealt a serious blow. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea all have elections coming next year, and the situation would become advantageous for candidates taking a hard-line stance.

In the meantime, all that Pyongyang would gain, beyond satisfying its pride for a one-time show of strength, would be isolation and hardship. In other words, launching a missile would be the product of an adventurism that fails to see the slightest bit of future ahead. That alone gives one basis for thinking North Korea will not thoughtlessly carry through with a launch.

The immediate reason it has decided to make preparations for a test firing appears to be because it wants to have American sanctions relaxed and win concessions in relation to the resumption of the six-party process. North Korea distrusts the Bush Administration, but Pyongyang acts as if it will return to the six-party talks if it is provided with the right kind of excuse. In support of this willingness, early this month it invited top U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill to visit Pyongyang.

That being the case, the best thing would be for the U.S. hard-liners to stop pushing North Korea and create conditions that would be favorable to a resumption of the six-party talks. It is a contradiction for the U.S. to say it is going to engage in direct dialogue with Iran and refuse to do the same with North Korea. Lisa Murkowski, chair of the U.S. Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, is calling for Hill to be allowed to visit. We hope that the suspicion of some--that the Bush Administration is quietly trying to push the North to take drastic steps--is not true.

The South Korean government has reportedly been expressing to the North its concern about the test fire since last month. It now needs to convey its position with even greater clarity so that the concern does not become reality. It also needs to work closely with the U.S. so as to encourage a more flexible approach. It is South Korea that suffers the most when tensions rise on the Korean Peninsula.