hankyoreh

North Korea's kidnapping of Japanese citizens years ago is haunting the Japanese government of Abe Shinzo. It's an ironic situation, because his hard-line stance on North Korea had been a political asset. In some ways this is an inevitable phenomenon. George F. Kennan, an American strategist and diplomat in the early stages of the Cold War, opposed the Truman Doctrine, saying hard-line policies tend to boomerang. He was worried that approaching intervention in Greece and Turkey with a dichotomy that saw developments in the region as a conflict between good and evil, a historic struggle between freedom and oppression, would harden public opinion and then make it difficult to engage in flexible diplomacy that would serve the national interest. Sure enough, that Cold War hysteria known as McCarthyism overtook the United States and led to wasteful Cold War confrontations like America’s policy toward China.

There have been subtle changes in Japanese prime minister Abe’s comments since the recent progress at the six-party talks. In the February 15 edition of the prime minister’s office’s biweekly e-mail, Abe said, "Japan has worked with the international community in pressuring North Korea. I hope this leads to dialogue." This was noteworthy because it seems to hint that he is interested in a policy of dialogue. On February 20 he met with families of the abducted and an organization that helps them, and on February 25 he went as far as to go to Nigata to meet with five repatriated abductees for the first time since being sworn in. Granted, much of the intention is to create a political performance meant to show off his hard-line stance on the question of abductions. But in the meantime, it also encompassed some hard political construction work, as he used those occasions to explain the significance of the six-party talks and seek the public's understanding as he tries to proceed with negotiations with Pyongyang.

The Japanese public's intense feelings about the abductee issue are actually a major burden for Abe's government. His approval ratings continue to fall, but his approach to this one issue continues to win a lot of support. In an Asahi Shimbun survey done mid-February, respondents who "disapprove" of his government reached 40 percent; more, for the first time, than the 37 percent who "approve" of the direction it is taking. Some 81 percent, however, agree with Abe's decision against participating in future aid programs for North Korea until the abductee issue is resolved. When he and some government officials starting making comments that sounded different from what was said previously about the abductee and aid situations, officials responsible began expressing concerns. There is a lack of clear vision about what to do next to achieve some degree of "progress" on the issue while bringing about a change in its hard-line policy.

Japan is pressuring the U.S. to link the U.S.-North Korea negotiations that start next week with negotiations between North Korea and Japan. This is because if the U.S. removes Pyongyang from its list of terror-sponsoring states without their being any progression the abductee issue, Japan will have a decisively weaker position with which to work. It is unclear whether Japan will succeed in holding America back when the U.S. has already begun to tilt towards negotiating with Pyongyang.

One thing is clear: the months ahead at the six-party talks, how negotiations between Tokyo and Pyongyang work out in that context, and what happens with the abductee issue will all determine a great deal for a government that has upper house elections coming in July. If the first actions pledged at the six-party talks do not result in progress and the process gets stuck again, Japanese hard-liners will have an opportunity to march back in, riding on those "Northern winds" from Pyongyang. If there is a sudden negotiation session with Pyongyang, such as the one held by former Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro, that, too, might be used to score an important accomplishment. National elections in South Korea, Japan, and the United States mean the future of the relationship of each country with North Korea directly relates to their domestic political climates.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]