[Column]Will Japan return to East Asia or go west, to America?

Posted on : 2007-08-15 12:16 KST Modified on : 2007-08-15 12:16 KST

Choi Tae-uk

Professor, Hallim Institute of Advanced International Studies

It was during the government of Keizo Obuchi (1998-2000) that Japan adopted Northeast Asian regionalism as the basic tone of its foreign diplomacy, since prior to Obuchi Japan had consistently supported American-led multilateral regimes like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the World Trade Organization. Japan suffered the indirect effects of the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 and realized how closely connected its own interests are to the East Asian economy and that it needed to strengthen economic cooperation with East Asia to prevent a similar situation from unfolding. It began pursuing policies designed to reduce its dependence on the dollar and increase monetary stability within the region by internationalizing the yen, to expand free trade agreements in order to speed up the pace of regional economic integration, and to strengthen ASEAN+3 so as to eventually formalize East Asian regionalism.

In particular, Obuchi emphasized the importance of cooperation with Korea. The thinking was that East Asian regional development on par with the European Union would only be possible if the two countries with the most developed democracies and market economies were at the vanguard of regional cooperation, which was why he identified Korea as the first country with which Japan should establish a free trade pact.

Entering the government of Junichiro Koizumi, whose administration was in office from 2001-2006, however, Japan’s emphasis on East Asia gradually began to weaken. Instead it adopted policies that were tilted towards the United States. In terms of security, it sought to go beyond the existing alliance and have a military integrated with that of the United States, and in terms of economics, it aimed to be America’s neoliberal partner.

Instead of regional development, the core goal of East Asia policy, like that of the United States, came to be keeping China in check. Originally this had been because of the Japanese assertion that Australia, India, and New Zealand be able to join the East Asian Summit, which was initially supposed to have been a more developed form of ASEAN+3. The motive was to bring these “extra-regional” nations into the regional framework to dilute Chinese influence and guarantee indirect American influence. This “dilution strategy” was effective. Chinese interest in regionalism has turned considerably from East Asia to Central and South Asia, and ASIAN+3 has lost its strength. Not that the East Asian Summit, with its extra-regional member states, was going to be able to play a meaningful role, either. Doubts about East Asian regionalism have come to dominate and the situation has not changed with prime minister Shinzo Abe, who took over after Junichiro Koizumi stepped down.

In the midst of this there have been events hinting at the possibility of Japan’s “return” to the region. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party was crushed by Ichiro Ozawa’s Democrats in upper house elections held on July 29. Abe is under intense pressure to resign, while Ozawa has the upper hand. The upper house has the authority to revise or reject bills that pass in the lower house, so it is clear that the Democratic Party is going to see a sudden boost in influence now that it is the biggest party in the upper house. The situation is such that you cannot exclude the possibility that the Democrats could use the momentum to pressure for the dissolution of the lower house, call for a general election and end up taking over the government. A recent poll, as reported by The Hankyoreh on August 7, indicates that Abe’s government enjoys an approval rating of just 22 percent, its lowest ever. Approval of the LDP has fallen to 17 percent, enough to ignite talk of a potential collapse.

Ozawa has called for a foreign policy that places importance on East Asia over the United States. The Democrats’ position papers have the building of mutual confidence with East Asian countries like China and Korea as part of the party’s key policies. They also talk about establishing an “equal” Japanese-American relationship. The rise of Ozawa and the Democratic Party makes it likely that we can expect to see a changed Japanese foreign policy that takes the United States seriously while disregarding East Asia. How will we welcome Japan if it returns to being a good neighbor? I am taking the time to ponder a new Korea-Japan relationship in the context of East Asian relations on this year’s Liberation Day.

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