[Column] Kim Jong-il’s next move

Posted on : 2007-09-07 11:43 KST Modified on : 2007-09-07 11:43 KST
By KangTae-ho, Reporter of The Hankyoreh

The political situation on the Korean peninsula remains dynamic. Such is the case with the decision in late August to hold another summit. It was then suddenly postponed to October. It demonstrates how unsure and unstable the country’s future is. It is dynamic, but also ominous.

North Korea has been suffering from natural disasters, like a poor household facing another family tragedy. Among them, the Ryongchon Train Station explosion and the recent flooding of Pyongyang, the capital of the Revolution, threaten the North’s ability to manage the country.

Esme Jo Culver of the American international aid organization, Mercy Corps, visited North Korea for the first time in June. She said she felt the land, and not just the people, was growing “exhausted,” too. North Korean fields and mountains have become helpless in the face of floods and droughts for the fact that tree growth has disappeared.

Time is not on North Korea’s side. National Defence Commission chairman Kim Jong-il surely must know this. It is clear they are not going to “kick back and wait.”

On May 22, 2004, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi went to Pyongyang to talk about gaining the return of abducted Japanese citizens. Kim Jong-il looked at Koizumi and told him that Korea’s “ultimate goal is denuclearization” and that “the freezing of our nuclear development programs will be followed by verification.”

Koizumi asked Kim if he could convey that message to U.S. President George W. Bush. “I would hope that you do,” was Kim’s answer. “I want to sing and dance with Bush until I go hoarse. I would hope that you would all accompany us as well. An orchestra of six people ... and the duet of me and Bush would go well together.”

These words of his were disregarded. Instead, in early 2005 as it began its second term, the Bush administration called North Korea an “outpost of tyranny.” On February 10 of that year the North’s foreign ministry responded by refusing to participate in the six-party talks and declaring that it had nuclear capabilities. The “outpost of tyranny” comment had followed the “Axis of Evil” label, and this strategy for seeing a change of government in North Korea was in conflict with the North’s obtaining a nuclear deterrent.

However, Bush changed his use of words. Stuck down in the Iraqi civil war, he said at the end of May of that year that, given a choice between diplomacy and the military, he “supports the diplomatic approach.” It was at this time that he referred to Kim as “Mister Kim Jong-il.”

At the U.S.-Korea summit that June 10th, Bush revealed that there could be movement towards a “more normal relationship” with Pyongyang if the North were to give up on its nuclear programs.

On June 17, Kim met then South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young [while Chung was in Pyongyang and when a meeting with Kim had not been scheduled]. During the meeting, Kim conveyed to Chung that the North would return to the six-party talks and he referred to Bush by the most formal title for the American president in Korean. “I have no reason to think badly of Bush,” said Kim. Apparently reminding Chung of his “duet” comment, he went on to say that he “said the same to Japanese prime minister Koizumi.”

The Choson Sinbo, the official publication of Chosen Soren, the association of North Koreans in Japan, called the conversation “indirect dialogue” between Kim and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun. This “communication” between the leaders of the North and the United States was the point of departure for the Sept. 19 Joint Statement that came out of the six-party talks later that year in Beijing.

Just last month, on Aug. 31, Bush called on North Korea to make the right decision. He said that though the North Korea nuclear issue is not resolved, it is coming to a close. Note that this was also something he said ahead of the U.S.-South Korea summit coming on Sept. 7 in Sydney. A high-ranking White House official said the meeting would be an important time for Bush to hear from Roh about his plans for the inter-Korean summit this October and for making progress at the six-party talks.

One thinks of June 2005. If the “duet with Bush” statement is still valid, then it should be clear where Kim is thinking his next destination should be following the inter-Korean summit. Bush surely knows it too. Last time it was indirect dialogue involving Chung, the Unification Minister. This time, it will be direct talk with President Roh.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]