hankyoreh

The air is full of calls for measures to be in place for the possibility of an unforeseen situation breaking out in North Korea because of National Defence Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il’s ill health. In some quarters, and mainly among some conservative media outlets, there are strong calls for elevating “Con Plan 5029” to “OPLAN 5029” (i.e., from a “concept plan” to an “operation plan”). The Lee Myung-bak administration is taking a reserved approach, saying it has “yet to decide whether 5029 will be elevated to the status of an operational plan.”

It would only be a matter of course that our government quietly, in advance, produce exacting plans for the various scenarios that could unfold if the North Korean leader is uanble to control the country or in the event of other sudden internal chaos there. However, approaching the possibilities militarily by talking about the revival of OPLAN 5029, discussion about which was halted during the presidency of Roh Moo-hyun, is extremely dangerous.

OPLANs, or “operation plans,” are just that, plans for military operations. The OPLAN 5029 proposed by the United States was a military operation involving U.S.-ROK Combined Forces, under U.S. command, in the event of political upheaval in the North. It would, according to international law, be something of a preemptive attack since it would be a military operation on North Korean territory without the provocation of an invasion from the North. From the perspective of the United States it could be an effective way of extracting North Korean nuclear weapons and materials, but for us it is very dangerous thinking that could lead to major disaster. It would very likely lead to full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula. Also, if U.S. troops advanced into North Korea, China could use that to justify military intervention.

The fact that command authority would be transferred to the United States under OPLAN 5029 could very well be an infringement on our sovereignty. It goes against the current flow, which is to have wartime command authority returned to South Korea in 2012. Now is the time to formulate original initiatives for the peaceful management of the Korean Peninsula instead of pulling out old military initiatives already discarded by the previous administration.

As witnessed in the case of Germany, even reunification by absorption cannot be achieved by military means alone. Also important will be the diplomatic strength to persuade neighboring nations about reunification, and the most critical element will be making sure there is a friendly attitude among the North Korean ruling elite and regular citizens there about South Korea. Only if Seoul maintains consistently friendly relations in ordinary times will the North ever ask it for help in a time of crisis. Only in such a situation would we be able to achieve a Korean-led and peaceful reunification.

The Lee administration needs to stop its virtual live broadcast of the details of Kim Jong-il’s state of health. Instead it needs to hurry to restore inter-Korean relations. It would also be troubling to needlessly increase tensions on the peninsula with things like a larger U.S.-ROK combined military landing exercise.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]