hankyoreh

North Korea announced officially yesterday that it is preparing to launch a long-range missile. It said it is launching the communication satellite Kwangmyongsong-2 using the rocket Unha-2, but that is essentially the same as launching one of its long-range Taepodong missiles. North Korea said its August 1998 launch of a Taepodong missile was really the launch of the “communications satellite Kwangmyongsong-1.” Repeated warnings from South Korea and the United States is having no influence on its current missile launch preparations.

The North seems to be thinking it has more to gain than to lose by firing a missile. It might be thinking it is going to make itself worth a bigger deal and put pressure on the new American administration, and that it can strengthen its position at the six-party talks and in relations with the United States. It might be trying to show off its missile technology, a potential source of foreign currency, and to shore up internal support ahead of the upcoming Supreme People’s Assembly meeting. Indeed, the missile launch of 1998 came immediately prior to the same kind of plenary session of the SPA.

The North Korean government’s calculations, however, are no more than a misjudgment of the situation. Firing a missile will, for starters, lead to international sanctions. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718, adopted unanimously in October 2006 immediately following North Korea’s test of a nuclear device, tells Pyongyang it must “suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile programme.” A missile launch would also further the North’s international isolation as opinion turned among the nations in the six-party talks. It is also highly probable that the Obama administration’s process of reexamining American policy towards North Korea would lose momentum. It would have a big price to pay internationally, even if it does score a few points on the home front, in terms of allowing the ruling elements to unify the people.

The relevant countries should work hard to resume the six-party talks to stop the missile launch. U.S. special envoy Stephen Bosworth needs to be especially busy. The Obama administration has said it is going to work harder on North Korea, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the issue of North Korean missiles is going to be part of negotiations with Pyongyang. Bosworth should be able to use the missile issue as a point of departure for new U.S.-North Korean dialogue. Pyongyang will also take convincing from South Korea and China; one way to do that would be for them, to send special envoys.

The North has enjoyed some of the desired effects from this kind of brinkmanship before, but in the end it always made the relevant countries distrust it all the more. It is time to put an end to that cycle. Pyongyang should quit with the missile gambling and cooperate on resuming the six-party talks.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]