hankyoreh

Amid a downward spiral in North Korea-US relations since the launch of the Barack Obama administration, former President Bill Clinton’s surprise visit to North Korea yesterday has grabbed the world’s attention. The visit’s official purpose is to bring home the two U.S. reporters being detained in North Korea, but the world is watching to see if any improvements in the North Korea-US relationship and nuclear talks are also made.

Clinton’s visit is of interest in two regards. Firstly, as a former president and husband to the current U.S. Secretary of State, he is considered to be a figure that exercises great influence over the foreign policy of the Obama administration. Moreover, Clinton has the strongest record, out of all of the U.S. presidents who have served, of bringing North Korea-U.S. relations close to normalization. Both the 1994 Geneva Accords that resolved the first nuclear crisis and the October 12 Joint Communique that fundamentally changed the framework for North Korea-U.S. relations were concluded during his presidency.

Secondly, experience has shown that prior nuclear deadlocks between North Korea and the U.S. were broken after the U.S. sent high-ranking figures to North Korea. The most representative example of this was during the nuclear crisis in 1994, when former President Jimmy Carter brought about a turning point in resolving the crisis through talks with North Korean leader Kim Il-sung in Pyongyang. Observers are saying Clinton’s visit, in comparison, has been more closely coordinated with the U.S. administration, which lends it more weight.

Both North Korea and the U.S. are currently keeping quiet about the details of Clinton’s visit, but experts say it could serve as a crucial opportunity in changing U.S. policy on North Korea from one of pressure to dialogue. They say whether that dialogue takes place within the framework of the six-party talks or within a separate framework will be an issue, but regardless, the visit signals that a North Korea-U.S. dialogue will begin in earnest. In fact, before the visit took place, the two countries engaged in attempts to resolve the nuclear deadlock through the New York channel. In particular, ever since Kurt Campbell assumed the position of Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in June, the U.S. has appeared to be open to the possibilities of a possible policy shift while preparing a “comprehensive package” acceptable to North Korea. North Korea, on its part, has been refraining from engaging in provocative actions.

Meanwhile, the Lee Myung-bak administration’s attitude seems to remain a problem. Inter-Korean relations are at their worst as a result of Lee’s hard line against North Korea. The Lee government must assess the quickly changing situation before the “Korean Peninsula problem is solved without South Korea.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]