hankyoreh

OPLAN 5029, the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command operational plan that serves as a blueprint for dealing with a “sudden change” in North Korea’s political situation, is once again becoming the topic of controversy. Yesterday, the Yonhap News reported a high-ranking source in the government as saying that the plan’s draft is based on five or six scenarios of upheaval in North Korea, including the outflow of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD), a civil war resulting from a regime change or coup d’etat, a South Korean hostage incident within North Korea, a large-scale defection of North Korean residents, and a large-scale natural disaster.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff issued an immediate denial statement calling the account “contrary to the facts,” while officials with the Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House) and Defense Ministry have either refused to comment or given an answer along the lines of, “We have had an agreement with the U.S. regarding OPLAN 5029 in place as of last year.” In other words, they have effectively acknowledged that some exchange has taken place behind the scenes. It also follows along with an Oct. 30 remark made by General Walter Sharp, U.S. Forces Korea Commander, that the two countries have agreed that even after wartime operational command has been transferred to South Korea., the U.S. military will be taking the initiative in any elimination of North Korean WMDs and in a marine corps assault landing.

Close cooperation and thorough planning between South Korea and the U.S. to prepare for the possibility of internal strife in North Korea are necessary. However, it is exceedingly dangerous to make preparations that emphasize military operations. Even if some sudden upheaval should arise in North Korea, it could settle down of its own accord over time, and there are always ways to calm the situation that do not involve military operations, including international cooperation and inter-Korean dialogue. OPLAN 5029, which presumes military operations in the event of an upheaval in North Korea, could very likely shut off a path to a peaceful resolution and provoke a war.

There are also quite a number of sensitive issues that need to be considered, including the lack of agreement between the U.S. and its focus on eliminating nuclear weapons and other WMDs, and South Korea and its focus on preventing war, as well as the sovereignty dispute between the two countries over operational command and the possibility of international warfare resulting from Chinese intervention. It is for these very reasons that discussions had been limited to conceptual plans instead of extending into operational plans during the Roh Moo-hyun administration.

Currently, the trend in the political situation on the Korean Peninsula has been to move away from sanctions and towards dialogue following Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s visit to North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, whose rumored ill health the South Korean government considered the most important factor influencing a potential North Korean upheaval, has been confirmed through various channels to be quite well. Now is the time for our government to focus all its energies on restoring inter-Korean dialogue in order to avoid falling behind the international current, rather than fixating on a revival of OPLAN 5029, which could easily lead to the calamity of war.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]