hankyoreh

The countdown has begun to the announcement of the cause of the Cheonan sinking. The Lee Myung-bak administration is reportedly scheduled to announce Thursday investigation findings that the ship was sunk by North Korea. It appears President Lee Myung-bak will follow the announcement with a variety of follow-up measures, including a special address and the announcement of sanctions on North Korea. The prediction is that inter-Korean relations will enter a phase from which they cannot return as it is clear North Korea will respond strongly, claiming its own innocence.

As the announcement of the findings will mark this grave of a watershed, it must be so precise and certain that nobody can add to it. It is problematic to say, “Who else would do it, if not North Korea?” while presenting only circumstantial evidence. Through the press, many stories have emerged, such as explosive residue being found on the Cheonan’s funnel and fragments of an aluminum-magnesium alloy used in the skin of torpedoes being discovered. However, we do not believe the Lee administration will be able to accept those findings and will confidently announce to the international community that it was a North Korean attack. This is because within South Korea itself, there are a startling array of objections, such as the hull below the waterline would have to be full of explosive residue if some was discovered on the funnel. We are curious as to whether the investigation team has secured some decisive piece of evidence that it has yet to release to the media.

The importance of the investigation results earning credibility was once again confirmed during talks two days ago between the foreign ministers of South Korea, China and Japan. At the talks, China indirectly expressed that it would be hard to accept the North Koreans sank the ship based just on the investigation up to now, and spoke of the need for decisive evidence. If we cannot present investigation results that change China’s unbending attitude, our government’s strategy of submitting the Cheonan sinking to the UN Security Council will run into trouble. It is not just China that may express doubts. Depending on the situation, Europe and the rest of the international community could also reach the decision to ignore South Korea’s claims.

The announcement of the investigation results is also important in terms of domestic politics. Even a young child could understand that if the investigation results are announced with the regional elections just a few days away, it will have a significant impact on the election. Of course, if the investigation is completely finished, and there is no need to delay the announcement. If the announcement is carefully timed despite the investigation being incomplete, it will be hard for the Lee administration to avoid criticism that it used the Cheonan sinking politically, even accepting diplomatic damages to do so. Ultimately, the investigation results will provide the answer to all these suspicions.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]