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North Korea has reportedly agreed to allow access for investigations into its food situation in areas previously restricted. The investigations to be carried out by international organizations include a World Food Programme (WFP) investigation that began last week. Observers are anticipating that with a precise grasp on the country’s food demand and improved transparency in the distribution process, a quick resumption of food aid to North Korea may be possible.
Recently, North Korean authorities have making visibly active efforts to mitigate the country’s food shortage. To begin with, the country made direct aid requests to different governments through its overseas diplomatic offices. It is very rare to see Pyongyang simultaneously requesting assistance from dozens of countries. In particular, it has asked the U.S. to resume the supply of 330 thousand tons of food aid that was halted in 2009. Washington began supplying 500 thousand tons of food aid to North Korea following an announcement in May 2008, but halted the effort following North Korea’s second nuclear weapons test, citing inadequate monitoring of the distribution process. North Korea also reportedly dispatched a large number of traders to China to procure food resources.
Sources report that North Korea’s chronic food shortage has worsened due to factors such as United Nations sanctions, Seoul’s aid suspension, and rising international grain prices. The Institute for National Security Strategy, an organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, predicted that North Korean food production in 2011 would amount to 3.8 to 3.9 million tons, some 200 to 300 thousand tons short of last year’s 4.14 million tons. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and WFP predicted the 2010 grain harvest would amount to 4.48 million tons, putting it 867 thousand tons short of the annual requirement of 5.35 million tons. Some analysts are saying that the situation is more dire even than the “March of Tribulation” in the 1990s and that it will worsen still further in the spring.
In spite of these moves, the South Korean government has remained lukewarm on the food aid issue. Seoul has said that it could provide humanitarian aid at any time, but it is linking any aid over a certain level to other issues including the sinking of the Cheonan, the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island, and the North Korean nuclear program. It has also asked the United States not to provide food aid to North Korea.
Such an approach is wrong from a humanitarian perspective. It presents one mistake of failing to mitigate suffering by the same Koreans, and a greater mistake of using that suffering as a means of applying political pressure. It will not aid the amicable resolution of pressing issues, and will certainly worsen distrust between North Korea and South Korea.
With the breakdown of last week’s working-level military meeting, the prospects for inter-Korean dialogue are once again unclear. Under these circumstances, we could see a repeat of previous examples of extreme antagonism depending on the way things unfold. It is time to give serious thought to providing food aid to North Korea, among other reasons for the sake of stable inter-Korean relations.
　　
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