hankyoreh

Yesterday, North Korea suddenly announced it would launch a long-range rocket in April. This announcement comes just a few weeks after Pyongyang reached an agreement with Washington to temporarily halt its nuclear program and long-range missile launches. One has to wonder just what its reasoning is. It is a reckless move, given the negative impact it is sure to have on relations with Seoul and Washington.
The North attached a proviso to its missile launch moratorium in its Feb. 29 agreement with the US, stating it would only halt launches “while productive dialogues continue.” So this announcement may be intended as a message that its negotiations with Washington on food aid and other matters since the agreement have not been “productive”. It could also be a pressure tactic by the North to lead the negotiations in a more beneficial direction.
It is difficult to see, however, how the situation could have changed so drastically as to warrant breaching the agreement after only two weeks. The goal must therefore lie elsewhere. The country previously declared that 2012, the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung‘s birth, would see the country’s development into a “strong and prosperous power”. The rocket launch could therefore be a means of mobilizing the citizenry for that anniversary on Apr. 15. It could also be an attempt to demonstrate the strength of the Kim Jong-un regime.
The Kwangmyongsong-2 launch in 2009 was announced a month ahead of time, so this launch is very likely to go ahead as scheduled. Already, Pyongyang is claiming that it is a peaceful observation satellite rather than a military one, and that it should not be barred from engaging in the same kind of satellite launches that other countries execute. But the rockets used for satellites have technology that is identical to long-range military rockets. Most importantly, the other nations involved aren‘t convinced by the North’s claims about it being a satellite rocket.
Perhaps the North believes it has more to gain than lose from the launch. That is a mistake. No matter what justification it gives, a long-range rocket launch is sure to vex the Obama administration in Washington and complicate negotiations, wiping out the first improvements in North Korea-US relations and potential for headway in the six-party talks on the nuclear issue. It is also likely to have a negative impact on the election situations in South Korea and the US, where national security issues are keenly felt. If the North‘s intention is to rally its people and show the world its capabilities with this launch, then it is in effect confessing that its regime is just that weak and lacking in confidence. We hope it calls off this reckless long-range rocket launch, which will benefit no one.
　
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