[Editorial] There is opportunity for peace on the peninsula in North Korea’s reshuffle

Posted on : 2012-07-21 10:06 KST Modified on : 2012-07-21 10:06 KST

It was an eventful four days. The drama of the North Korean leadership's reshuffling began on the morning of July 16 with a Korean Central News Agency report that People's Army Chief of General Staff Ri Yong-ho, a key figure in the country's military, had been relieved of all his duties the day before for reasons of ill health.
The movement stopped a few days ago when Kim Jong-un received the title of "marshal of the republic." The newly vacated position of Chief of General Staff was filled through the promotion of Gen. Hyon Yong-chol to vice marshal. In the final analysis, this rearrangement was aimed at building a system made up of Kim Jong-un loyalists.

This flurry of activity raises two major questions. One is what the newly organized regime's focus will be, and the other is whether it will be able to remain stable. In answer to the first question, the chances are good that we will see Pyongyang moving away from isolation and "military first" policies toward openness and "economy first" measures. Ri was one of the key military conservatives, whereas National Defense Commission deputy chairman Jang Song-thaek and People's Army politburo chief Choi Ryong-hae - both of whom saw their stature rise in the reshuffling - are considered supporters of reforms and openness, and have civilian backgrounds. Furthermore, both Kim Jong-un and the Rodong Sinmun, the WPK central committee's newspaper, have put an emphasis in recent speeches or reports on building of a strong economy to inherit the mantle of the military first policies.

In terms of regime stability, Kim handled the situation swiftly through official procedures, thereby sending a message of confidence and command. This may have gone some way in allaying outside concerns about his youth and inexperience. Of course, some say the reshuffling is just the beginning of the power battle. We will need to watch closely to see how the conservatives in the military react to being sidelined.

One issue that must be addressed with this episode is the Lee Myung-bak administration's North Korea intelligence capabilities, or lack thereof. It says a lot that all the President had to say at a meeting of foreign affairs and national security ministers - two days after the announcement of Ri's dismissal - was that they should "keep watching North Korea's activities intently and cooperating closely with other countries." And even this was just a few hours before the North announced the conferment of Kim Jong-un's new title. This can't be seen as anything but the product of inflexible North Korea policy and shoddy intelligence.

The Lee administration may be nearing the end of its time in power, but it still needs to work proactively so that changes in the North can contribute to the stability, peace, and development of the peninsula. One good option may be to watch the events in Pyongyang with an eye toward resuming the Mt. Kumgang tourism venture and increasing humanitarian exchanges and aid during the remainder of its time in office.
Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]


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