hankyoreh

By Song Min-soon, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade 　

Some are predicting that the re-election of Barack Obama as US President and the Xi Jinping regime’s arrival in China will be an opportunity for positive change on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. But a closer look at the reality of things shows a number of factors militating against such a change.

Typically, we say that Washington is managing the status quo and Beijing is maintaining it. Neither is in a position to commit its energies to changing the present order. With the US poised on the brink of a “fiscal cliff,” its leaders have had little attention to spare - even during the presidential election - to matters of foreign affairs that would not have an immediate impact on the domestic economy or political situation. It focused on relations with Beijing, the Iranian nuclear program, and matters in the Middle East, with little opportunity to comment on the Korean Peninsula or North Korea’s nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the new leaders in China have their plate full bridging the country’s yawning rich/poor and urban/rural divides, fighting corruption, and implementing political reforms within the party. They are in no shape to make the first move to fix things in the region.

During its first term, the Obama administration’s policy for the Korean Peninsula was clear enough. Ever since it adopted its “strategic patience” approach early on, prompted by provocative and uncooperative acts by Pyongyang such as nuclear and missile tests, the North Korean nuclear issue has been something to manage rather than something to solve. As long as it didn’t turn into anything that posed an immediate threat to US security, Washington was content to stand behind Seoul’s line on North Korea. It was the realistic option for the US. With some now expressing skepticism over whether North Korea will ever give up its nukes, the Obama administration, absent any major changes, is unlikely to pursue any diplomatic efforts on the Korean Peninsula that are not directly in its political interest.

The factors that could impact Washington’s diplomatic calculations are the cooperativeness of China, a change in tack from Pyongyang, and Seoul’s ability to contribute diplomatic assets. But there is no chance of the new leaders in Beijing taking any action that might destabilize the North. To date, China has been suggesting that it might consider also taking action on North Korea if Washington accepts the “rational security concerns” Pyongyang has claimed. The reference here is to the US lifting sanctions and normalizing relations with North Korea. And there is zero chance of Washington making the first move there.

Neither, for the matter, does Pyongyang seem poised to give up either its nuclear program or its missiles. Its new leadership may be making superficial gestures at reform, but it’s too much to expect Pyongyang to take the first step on the nuclear issue. Eventually, South Korea will be the only place to find the will and ability to shake things up.

And what about us? With the presidential election coming up in December, the foreign affairs and security shelves of the three candidates are positively stacked with untested goods. Most of them are unlikely to do much good unless headway is made on the nuclear issue. They’re all hopeful generalities, missing even a way to finish the baby steps of nuclear disablement that were stopped in their tracks four years ago.

The time has come for Seoul to add to its own diplomatic tool kit by sketching out a resolution to the nuclear issue, discussing it with Washington, and bringing Beijing on board. This is our chance to create a space in Northeast Asia for harmonizing between the US and China, and it is where our future lies. We change nothing merely by hoping that the new leaders in Washington and Beijing will try, well, something.

Perhaps Washington can figure out that most South Koreans have lost their patience with strategic patience. If Seoul takes the lead, Washington will have to go with strategic investment. The alliance can only succeed when it is seen as contributing to the peace and stability of the peninsula and the region, to shared prosperity, and most of all to the reunification of Korea.

Beijing, for its part, needs to take a more proactive stance rather than simply lobbing the ball over to Washington. Otherwise, that stable status quo it so desires for the Korean Peninsula may not be something it can take for granted after all. North Korea is surely aware that whoever leads the next administration in Seoul will favor policies for both sides to live together as a community, rather than “regime change” or “unification by absorption”. In the meantime, it needs to reciprocate by joining a dialogue and declaring Pyongyang’s intent to freeze its nuclear and missile activities.

The question is whether our next administration will be capable of properly reading the big picture and getting Washington, China, and Pyongyang to come along. For now, the South Korean public should take a close look at the credibility of the candidates’ specific policies rather than getting taken in by grand generalities.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]