hankyoreh

The biggest threat of war in the 19 years since the 1994 nuclear crisis is clouding over the Korean Peninsula. From the rhetoric coming out of North Korea, it would not be overstating matters to say that the area stands poised at the brink of war.

For the past few days, North Korea has been issuing increasingly intense threats over United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2094, which imposes additional sanctions following the country's recent nuclear test, and the Key Resolve joint exercises between South Korea and the US, which are set to begin on March 11. Kim Yong-chol, who handles anti-terrorism operations and psychological warfare as head of the (North) Korean People's Army reconnaissance general bureau, started things off on March 2 with a KPA supreme command spokesperson's statement warning of the nullification of the armistice agreement and turning Seoul and Washington into seas of fire. A few hours before the UNSC resolution was adopted, the North Korean foreign ministry objected vehemently in a spokesperson's statement, saying it would be "difficult now to avoid a second Korean War" and warning that it would "exercise the right to a preemptive nuclear strike against the stronghold of the aggressors." After the resolution, the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea declared the non-aggression agreement with South Korea null and announced the severing of the communication channel between the two countries' Red Cross organizations at Panmunjom. Kim Jong-un rallied the troops with inspection visits on March 7 to the Warrior Hero Defense Unit and the Changjae Island Defense Corps, which carried out a 2010 artillery attack on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island. It is like watching a runaway train.

Several motives seem to be at play in Pyongyang's behavior, including the hope of getting the sanctions reduced and drawing Washington into dialogue. But with all channels for dialogue with Seoul blocked and trust out the window, there's no saying it couldn't put its words into action. Rather than blaming their own inaction on the transition between administrations and the opposition's refusal to go along with the amendment of the Government Organization Act, President Park Geun-hye and other government authorities need to do their duty protecting the lives and property of their people against North Korean provocations, allowing them to go about their lives with peace of mind.

Passed unanimously on the morning of Mar. 9, UNSC resolution 2094 is as stern as it could be, including everything short of military enforcement measures. It urges member states to forbid any vessels suspected of carrying banned North Korean cargo to stop or pass through their territory. It also places strict limits on financial activities related to North Korea's missile or nuclear programs. As a way of targeting the ruling class, it designates an embargo on jewelry, luxury cars, yachts, and other items and demands strict monitoring of its diplomats for illegal actions. This is sure to strike a blow against a country that depends on outside technology and materials for its nuclear weapon and missile programs.

But few people seriously believe even these sanctions are actually capable of halting those programs. What the latest nuclear test clearly showed is that North Korea is wagering everything on its nuclear weapons and missile development. Judging from the cycle we have seen so often in the past - sanctions leading to provocations, leading to yet more sanctions - it does not seem at all likely to bow, hardened as it has become to the punishments. But if Beijing breaks from precedent and lends active support to the sanctions, then Pyongyang may soon get the message that hard-line policy isn't the solution to everything.

For now, the job is clearly to make sure the sanctions are effective. But it should not be forgotten that the reason the whole North Korean nuclear issue emerged in the first place is because of the country's security concerns. Any real resolution will have to start with a faithful adherence to the spirit of the agreement of September 19, 2005, in which North Korea pledged to give up its nuclear weapons and missile programs in exchange for security guarantees and economic aid. It falls on South Korea's foreign affairs and national security leaders to find a way of coming up with and following through a new, improved version of this agreement that Pyongyang, Washington, and Beijing can all agree to. The ones who suffer most from an unstable Korean Peninsula are the ones living on it.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]