hankyoreh

By Jin Jingyi, professor at Peking University

The recent crisis on the Korean peninsula has been heightened by North Korea’s game of chicken against the world’s most powerful country, the United States. North Korea has made claims of an impending ‘war’ and has pushed the US and South Korea to the edge. By showing off their sophisticated weapons, the US has also escalated the crisis. All of these actions are consistent with the established patterns of the game. This time, however, the actions of the countries involved have been a reminder that we are on the brink of war. New tensions need to surpass those seen in the past for us to feel a real sense of impending crisis.

In a game of chicken, both sides assume that the other side is acting rationally. If each side thinks that their counterpart is irrational, then the game itself cannot play out. Because it is thought that each action is based on rationality, each side can believe that the opposite party will ultimately surrender in the end. The game of chicken can’t work if they don’t believe this. As a result, in a game of chicken you assume your opponent is rational, while your own actions are irrational. By maximizing irrational behavior and extending the sense of crisis, the gap between the two sides’ goals is narrowed. But these irrational actions must be influenced by rationality. If that is not the case, then the game results in both sides losing, which amounts to mutual destruction. In a game of chicken, all irrational behavior must be carried out according to rational calculation.

North Korea may have intensified the recent crisis with unprecedented actions because they believed they could force the US to move on their own conditions. Only once the crisis was at its peak did South Korea suggest dialogue and the US cancel a part of its combined military exercises. North Korea had succeeded in influencing the US, which did not budge at all during President Obama’s first four-year term.

According to the rules, the US and South Korea refrained from direct conflict, so the game should have come to an end. North Korea therefore seemed to have accomplished their early goals. But in actuality North Korea has refused overtures for dialogue from the US and South Korea. It means that they are not satisfied with just forcing the US to move to dialogue. They want the US to sign a peace treaty and work towards improving diplomatic relations. This is a goal the North has been pursuing for the past 20 years. But it seems that they are getting farther from their goal as the game continues.

Perhaps North Korea has been playing an unwinnable game for 20 years. The US’s hostile policy is not simply based on hating North Korea: it is based on the US’s need for North Korea to be an ‘enemy’ in its East Asian strategy. As long as their East Asian strategies do not change, the US needs to keep tensions with North Korea at a manageable level. If the North Korean nuclear threat didn’t exist, then the US would create a different threat to maintain the conflict with North Korea.

It might be a mistake to think that the US felt danger in the recent game of chicken and stood back. If the US concludes that North Korea is behaving irrationally under a veneer of rationality then they could use the crisis as a strategic opportunity.

North Korea expects to think they could control the great powers, including the US, but rather the recent game caused a strengthening of the US’s East Asian strategies. In addition it has provided an excuse for Japan’s militarism, which is an unwanted outcome. North Korea may think they won the game by acquiring nuclear weapons, but those weapons cost them the past 20 years.

In order to win the game, you need to know your enemy and know yourself. Ironically, if North Korea changes its goal to denuclearization and opens up a new game, then they might bring about results that the US doesn’t want. Aiming to improve relations with South Korea may provide a shortcut to improving relations with the US. It is time to follow a new pattern so that the North can play a winning game.

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