On Feb. 6, the government ministries in charge of foreign affairs and national security - the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Unification, and Ministry of National Defense - reported their policy plans for this year to President Park Geun-hye. The common theme was “laying the groundwork for a unified peninsula,” and, as that would suggest, the main focus was on advancing Park’s ideas for pursuing the “jackpot” of unification with North Korea. But the lack of any concrete ideas for resolving the current issues affecting the peninsula, and the excessive focus on the President’s own pet issues, raise serious questions about what effect, if any, they will have.
First, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it planned to respond to the nuclear issue by encouraging change in North Korea through stronger international coordination. The plan appears to be more of the same “apply pressure and wait” strategy, rather than any active efforts to resume dialogue through the six-party talks or some other framework. It also said this year’s joint military exercises with the US - which are set to start very soon - will be the first to incorporate the US-ROK “customized deterrence strategy” in response to the North Korean nuclear and WMD threat. It’s disappointing to see the government seemingly taking North Korea’s nuclear development for granted, while failing to take any action to solve the problem through dialogue and negotiation. There’s also no sign of any ideas for easing tensions and bringing about practical improvements in inter-Korean relations. As it happens, North Korea’s National Defense Commission made a strong call for a halt to the joint exercises the same day, going so far as to hint that it may reconsider its agreement to allow reunions between separated family members later this month.
The “unification stage-setting” activities emphasized by the administration are also way out of touch with reality. A case in point is Park’s election campaign pledge to develop a World Peace Park in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The Ministry of Unification reported that it would finalize an agreement with North Korea on the project and break ground within the year, but this is pretty much out of the question with inter-Korean relations in the state they are now. The same goes for the so-called “Eurasia Initiative” and other forms of participation in the Rajin-Hasan distribution project, which Park has shown an interest in. Yet the administration has already set aside a yearly budget in the tens of millions of dollars for a Peace Park. Meanwhile, the report mentioned nothing about more pressing concerns, such as reopening tourism at Mt. Keumgang, relaxing or lifting the so-called “May 24 measures” barring investment in North Korea, and promoting inter-Korean economic cooperation efforts. It also reaffirmed its passive stance on humanitarian aid to North Korea and increased private sector exchange.
The ministry plans talked a lot about “instability” in the Kim Jong-un regime following the execution of onetime second-in-command Jang Song-thaek. And while the gist of the “unification-as-jackpot” idea is that both South and North can make a big leap forward through reunification, the administration has trended toward combining it with arguments in favor of waiting for a regime collapse and “absorbing” North Korea. If this report is part of that trend, then it stands to make things a lot worse than they are - never mind “laying the groundwork for reunification.”
Solving the nuclear issue and improving ties with Pyongyang will require policies agreeable to the other parties involved, not least of them North Korea. Sloganeering about “North Korean change” and “hitting the unification jackpot” will accomplish nothing by itself.
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