[Column] A defense strategy that wins the battle but loses the war

Posted on : 2014-10-16 14:44 KST Modified on : 2014-10-16 14:44 KST
South Korea is paying lip service to cooperation with China, but risks becoming henchman in alliance with US and Japan
 editorial writer
editorial writer

By Kim Ji-suk, editorial writer

“After the end of the Cold War, it was our number one priority on a diplomatic and military level. But for a significant amount of time, even internally, it was ambiguously labeled ‘uncertainty.’ Now, it has the plainer name of ‘threat.’ You could say that its intensity has changed.”

These are the words of an American diplomat who worked for a long time in the Northeast Asia region. The “uncertainty” and “threat” mentioned here refer not to North Korea, but to China. Put another way, China is the primary enemy of the US.

The US‘s key partner is Japan, where around 53,000 American soldiers are stationed. This is nearly twice the size of US Forces Korea (USFK), which consists of about 28,000 soldiers.

The composition of American forces in Japan is different, too. Ground forces (the 8th Army) account for 70% of USFK, but US Forces Japan (USFJ) includes the army, navy, air force, and marines - and even an aircraft carrier. Cleary, USFJ puts a premium on mobility and comprehensiveness.

Treating the entire western Pacific Ocean as its area of operations, USFJ is centered on the 7th Fleet with its flagship, the carrier USS George Washington, and the 3rd Marine Division, which is stationed on Okinawa.

USFJ is effectively integrated with the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), with the command center located at Yokota Air Base in Tokyo. Two and a half times the size of Yeouido in Seoul, this is the largest US military base overseas. Two years ago, the general command of the Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF), which heads up Japan’s missile defense program, relocated to Yokota.

The Yokosuka Naval Base, located near Tokyo, is the home base of the 7th Fleet. American ships and vessels of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) dock next to each other in the berths there.

The JSDF aviation group at Naha, Okinawa is in the vanguard of the Japanese military. Its primary adversary is China, which is locked in a territorial dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands (called the Diaoyu Islands in China).

The main aircraft used by the aviation group is the American-made F-15. While these fighters are sometimes scrambled in an emergency situation, the Japanese military cannot pull the trigger first. But collective self-defense gives Japan a way to get around the limits placed on self-defense.

Recently, the US and Japan published an interim report on plans to substantially revise the Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation. The main objective of these revisions is to considerably expand the right to collective self-defense. Japan’s goal is to gain the ability to engage in combat - including preemptive strikes - everywhere that the US military regards as being within its area of operations.

But there is one thing lacking for the US and Japan: the fact that the ROK military does not operate alongside them. Cooperation with South Korea would bring the major facilities and highly populated areas on the eastern seaboard of China within arm’s reach, enabling American and Japanese forces to more effectively carry out military operations there.

The US is working to increase military cooperation between it, South Korea, and Japan, in order to set up a trilateral alliance. Mark Lippert, who will soon become the US Ambassador to South Korea, is currently the chief of staff to the US Secretary of Defense, who is a loyal adherent to this course of action.

The question of whether Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) will be deployed in South Korea is an important litmus test here. While THAAD includes interceptor missiles, the aspect of the missile system that is receiving more attention is its X-band radar, which can provide meticulous surveillance at 1,000 km under normal circumstances, and sometimes as far as 2,000 or even 3,000 km.

One of these radars is already deployed at Aomori Prefecture on the northern part of the Japanese island of Honshu, and construction is currently underway on another one near Kyoto on the southwest part of the island. If THAAD is deployed with USFK, South Korea will effectively serve as an outpost for Japanese and American forces on the front lines with China.

The threat posed by North Korea is an excellent pretext for creating this confrontation. Putting efforts to resolve the nuclear issue and to bring peace to the Korean peninsula on the back burner and institutionalizing conflict between North and South Korea are another side of the same coin.

At the moment, we are already halfway there. As long as the US mainland is not threatened directly and as long as a hot war does not break out on the Korean peninsula, a certain degree of conflict between North and South Korea works to the advantage of the US and Japan.

The US intends to push ahead with deploying THAAD with USFK. While the South Korean government insists that no official deliberations have taken place on the topic, it is also responding positively to the idea. One credible view is that the government will allow the US to deploy THAAD in exchange for delaying the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) - in other words continuing to allow the US to control South Korea‘s military sovereignty. This is a time when a decision could be made that would transform the framework of the South Korean security environment before the public realizes it.

Officially, the South Korean government talks about cooperation between the US and China and criticizes Japan for expanding its right to collective self-defense; in reality, though, it is on its way to becoming a henchman in the Japan-US alliance against China.

This is a security approach that seeks to win the battle at the risk of losing the war.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

 

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