hankyoreh

Signs of heightening tensions are in the air on the Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, a coarse battle of nerves is leaving no way in for dialogue between Pyongyang and either Seoul or Washington. At this rate, we look to be in for a repeat of the situation of previous years, where things deteriorated rapidly over the joint South Korea-US military exercises starting in early March.

North Korea’s state-run media quoted leader Kim Jong-un as saying during an inspection of joint air force and navy exercises - a seemingly pointed display for the US - that he was “not willing to sit down anymore with mad dogs.” It was as direct a response as one could imagine to US President Barack Obama’s remarks on Jan. 22 predicting a collapse of the regime. The exercises themselves involved an air and ocean strike against an island off Wonsan posing as a US aircraft carrier. It’s rare to see such shows of force directed squarely at Washington. Pyongyang certainly is misguided to try to deliberately ramp up tensions ahead of the annual military exercises in South Korea. It should recognize that it certainly stands to lose more when the Korean Peninsula is a tenser place.

Another problem is the string of recent statements by senior US officials echoing Obama’s regime collapse predictions. On a Jan. 30 visit to Seoul, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller said, “The fact that we have a new executive order [from early January] devoted to this [sanctions against North Korea] it really shows how committed the president is.” A day earlier, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman said she personally “agreed” with Obama’s remarks. What this shows is that for all that the US is supposed to be adopting “two-track” approach of pressure and dialogue with North Korea, it apparently has little real interest in dialogue. The State Department’s Special Representative for North Korea policy, Sung Kim, said North Korea had refused to agree to an attempted meeting with a representative in China on Jan. 30; North Korea responded on Feb. 1 by saying Washington was the side that rejected its own proposal for a Pyongyang visit by Kim.

Seoul owns a hefty share of responsibility for this. The state of tensions on the peninsula is directly correlated to the situation in inter-Korean relations. Any chance for dialogue in January passed by amid South and North both demanding that the other “act first.” Little right now suggests any sort of communication will be taking place in February either. The South Korean government is insisting that the North reported for talks unconditionally, but Pyongyang is unlikely to go along if it feels uncertain about what the discussions would focus on. Seoul needs to find a way out of this “game of uncertainty.”

To do nothing about a situation that is only going to raise tensions amounts to a dereliction of duty. Not only does it make all the talk about reunification unrealistic, but it also leaves the prospects for resolving the nuclear issue that much bleaker. Seoul needs to break this vicious cycle of the same things happening every year.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]