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Workers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex in Kaesong

On Feb. 10, the South Korean government decided to carry out a complete suspension of operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, which is located in North Korea. Since Seoul has stated that it will only resume operations at the complex when Pyongyang addresses the concerns of the international community resulting from its development of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, this might as well be a shutdown.

The move - which Seoul describes as being part of its own separate punitive measures for North Korea’s nuclear missile test on Jan. 6 and its launch of a long-range missile on Feb. 7 - is obviously a step too far. If anything, it’s likely to worsen tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Since producing its first batch of products in early Dec. 2004, the Kaesong Complex has continued to steadily develop despite many twists and turns. Even though North Korea carried out three nuclear tests, the complex remained open. In March 2013, it was closed for several months after North Korea blocked South Korean staff’s access to the complex to protest joint military exercises by South Korea and the US.

The Kaesong Complex has faithfully served as a safety valve for inter-Korean relations even amidst difficult circumstances, and it’s truly regrettable that the South Korean government has made the arbitrary decision to close its doors.

“The Kaesong Complex must not be used for North Korea’s development of weapons of mass destruction. We must be responsible in taking the lead in international efforts to make North Korea pay the price for destroying the peace,” the South Korean government said by way of explaining the move.

This is a far-fetched argument. Each year, North Korea makes between US$80 million and $100 million from the complex, of which about 30% is collected by the regime in Pyongyang. In addition to the fact that this is not a large amount, it is a stretch to link the proceeds of legitimate economic cooperation with the development of weapons of mass destruction.

More damage will be inflicted on South Korean tenant companies at the complex, which have been producing more than US$500 million worth of products there each year. In effect, these are not sanctions on North Korea - they are sanctions on South Korean companies.

A false step that will accomplish little

Another reason that it’s a bad idea to shut down the Kaesong Complex is because it won’t accomplish much. Seoul has already resumed propaganda broadcasts on loudspeakers located in the DMZ as a separate form of sanctions for North Korea’s nuclear test.

Concerns have been voiced that this measure would add to instability on the Korean Peninsula and undermine international cooperation with little to show for it. Indeed, the UK made critical remarks about the measure, while China, which had put pressure on North Korea immediately after the nuclear test, soon returned to a neutral stance.

Shutting down the Kaesong Complex could lead to a similar outcome. Furthermore, considering that this was almost the last measure that Seoul could take on its own, this is bound to limit Seoul’s options.

It’s clear that North Korea’s launch of a long-range missile on Feb. 7 was a provocation against the international community. This is even more the case since it happened while the international community was in the middle of a discussion about what sanctions to impose after the North’s nuclear test.

To borrow a phrase used by South Korean President Park Geun-hye, it does seem that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is accelerating the North’s development of nuclear weapons and missiles because he places the top priority on the survival of his regime.

North Korea’s missile launch is clearly a provocation, but…

But as South Korea’s experience over the past 20 years shows, it’s impossible for the South to solve the North Korean issue, including its nuclear and missile programs, on its own.

That’s why international cooperation is so important. Even if countries around the Korean Peninsula have conflicting ideas, South Korea must do its best to reach consensus and find a way to resolve those issues.

Despite this, the actions recently taken by the South Korean government have not been of this sort. By raising the possibility of allowing the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defense system to be deployed on the Korean Peninsula, Seoul has created a rift with Beijing and Moscow. Seoul is also choosing to move away from international cooperation first by turning the propaganda loudspeakers back on and then by making the extreme decision to shut down the Kaesong Complex.

High-ranking officials in the South Korean government appear to believe that, as long as the current regime in North Korea remains in power, the nuclear issue and other problems will never be resolved. In the same context, they appear to believe that now is the time to make every effort to bring down the North Korean regime. These efforts including calling upon the US and Japan to toughen sanctions against North Korea and to expand its joint military exercises with the US.

The decision to shut down the Kaesong Complex also seems to reflect an intention to prod the international community to carry out a “secondary boycott” against North Korea. If such measures are taken, they would hurt Chinese companies, which handle the majority of foreign trade with North Korea.

Even assuming for the moment that the collapse of the North Korea regime is an appropriate goal, this attempt is the result of wishful thinking. Even if some limited form of secondary boycott were implemented, it would aggravate conflict between the US and China long before it inflicted any damage on North Korea

Furthermore, while the US will probably impose its own additional sanctions on North Korea at some point, it’s even more interested in strengthening cooperation on security matters with South Korea and Japan. Japan, for its part, views North Korean provocations as a good excuse to speed up its own rearmament.

It’s also unclear what the South Korean government hoped to achieved with its decision to shut down the Kaesong Complex. There has been an air of improvisation about this and the rest of the measures that the government has taken since North Korea’s nuclear test.

If Seoul’s decision to shut down the complex was motivated by domestic political concerns, this is a serious problem. With the decision to shut down the complex, Seoul has now exhausted nearly all of its leverage against the North. Worryingly, the only option that remains is military force.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]