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Donald Trump points during his victory speech after being elected the 45th President of the United States

Real estate magnate and political outsider Donald Trump defied expectations to achieve victory as the Republican Party candidate in the US presidential election on Nov. 8. This is expected to cause a much greater shock to the world order than BREXIT this past June, when Great Britain decided in a popular referendum to leave the European Union. The international trend for countries to overtly prioritize the national interest is likely to become even stronger.

Trump has attacked the US’s basic foreign policy stance and espoused the position of “America First.” This represents an outright rejection of traditional internationalism, under which the US takes on the responsibility that is commensurate to its status as a superpower. It‘s highly likely that Trump’s course will lead to a degree of isolationism and unilateralism with little historical precedent. If the US puts the priority on angling for short-term gains, there will inevitably be a huge impact on the world at large. Even if Trump chooses the practical course of moderating some of his goals, international conflict will still break out in various places.

This presidential election revealed Americans’ repugnance for mainstream politics as well as the limitations of American democracy. Given that this was the worst election in history - in which policy debate gave way to ad hominem attacks, in which reasonable debate was drowned out by demagoguery - the ramifications will be great. The election also confirmed that American society is deeply divided along political, class, and racial lines. Trump’s fascist tendencies and his immorality could make it hard for him to fulfill his duties as president.

Perhaps most significantly, this election has shown countries around the world American weakness. If Trump fails to achieve national unity through far-sighted policies, American prestige on the world stage will crater.

The biggest question for South Koreans is how Trump’s election will affect South Korea, the Korean Peninsula and East Asia. Trump has argued that American allies including South Korea have been getting a free ride on American security and have been taking advantage of the US. Such an approach - which is contrary to the facts and completely disregards the value of these alliances - could be a major source of instability in relations between the US and South Korea and in affairs on the Korean Peninsula. Since Trump has indicated his opposition to a missile defense system in East Asia, one result could be a solution to the dispute inside and outside of South Korea over the deployment of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defense system in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang Province.’

Trump never offered a concrete solution to the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons, which is the biggest issue on the Korean Peninsula. While he has mentioned China playing a greater role or South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons, these are far from a solution. Trump described North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as being crazy, but he did not rule out the possibility of dialogue with the North. Trump‘s erratic attitude could make the nuclear problem worse. The extremely critical attitude he has shown toward China could also hinder international cooperation toward resolving the nuclear issue.

In short, Trump’s election signifies an increase of uncertainty. In particular, it’s not easy to predict what effect this will have on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia, where the US has made its presence known. South Korea must take active steps to prepare for these changes. The most important thing is to make a rational readjustment of the US-South Korea alliance and to find a solution to the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons. South Korea must also stop its de facto degeneration into a junior partner in the US-Japan alliance, which has been occurring since Park Geun-hye became president of the country, in early 2013.

South Korea must also approach the nuclear issue with the understanding that a solution will not be easy to find if a framework for dialogue is not created early in the next US government. Since Trump is not likely to offer any practical solutions, South Korea’s role is more important than ever.

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