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US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing

For the last two weeks or so, the Korean Peninsula “crisis index” in Washington DC has been going through the roof. The signs certainly aren’t encouraging. The conflicts are only getting worse, not better. While the upcoming US-China summit next week means the situation is still up in the air, that is certainly how it feels at the moment.

Since Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s recent visits to South Korea, China, and Japan, the mood in Washington has been progression toward a hard line on Pyongyang. The fires were stoked by Tillerson’s remarks about the possibility of military action against North Korea. In context, he was talking about it as a last resort, noting that there were many other steps that could be taken before things reached that point. Yet the remarks drew an edgy response from the South Korean and US media alike.

On top of this came the failure of President Donald Trump’s ambitious health care insurance legislation to even go up for a House of Representatives vote. With his current Russia scandal further tying his hands, Trump has found himself in dire straits in domestic politics. Added to that are signs of North Korea’s preparations for another nuclear test and its rocket engine test.

Some are voicing fears that the Trump administration could feel tempted to adopt extreme policy measures if Pyongyang does something to heighten tensions. News outlets and hard-line experts are talking a lot more about regime change in North Korea. In South Korea, there is no control tower right now to take responsibility for state affairs. “Living on a prayer” is how one Korean-American expert at a Washington think tank put it - and it doesn’t feel like much of an exaggeration.

The Trump administration has said it is considering “every option” for North Korea policy. But what has taken shape to date amounts to deploying the THAAD system to increase the deterrent against the North and “using China” to ratchet up sanctions. It’s an even skimpier box of tools than before. At this rate, there’s a good chance that four years from now, when Trump’s term comes to an end, Tillerson’s proclamation that the Barack Obama administration’s strategic patience approach to North Korea had “failed” will be shown to be nothing more than empty words.

The Obama administration’s “solution” to the North Korean nuclear issue was conceived only in terms of blocking the threat. That’s why it failed. In Trump’s case, I would recommend seriously considering negotiating with Pyongyang, if only to maximize strategic benefits the way a true businessman would - just as the US did in normalizing relations with Myanmar.

Myanmar, like the Korean Peninsula, is an environment where the US and China and battling for influence. A few years ago, an expert at one US think tank described the normalization of US-Myanmar relations as “a victory in the diplomatic war with China,” adding that there were rumors it had left China extremely unsettled.

Of the 14 countries sharing land borders with China, Myanmar and North Korea had been the only two that were seen as relatively unthreatening. Now only North Korea is left. If the US were to normalize relations with the North, that might prove even more threatening to China than the THAAD deployment. Securing US influence over the Rajin harbor (on North Korea’s far northeastern coast) - coveted by China and Russia - could head both off in their advancement into the Pacific Ocean. It might even be possible to disrupt some of China’s military concentration in the South China Sea.

I am not unaware of the many counterarguments that could be raised about comparing Myanmar and North Korea. Myanmar didn’t have nuclear weapons. Myanmar had a lot more of the mineral resources that outside businesses covet than North Korea does. Myanmar was more open than North Korea. US defense companies are certainly going to be up in arms.

But there are no negotiations without hurdles, and there’s no such thing as diplomacy where just one side gets to enjoy the fruits. People weren’t optimistic when the Obama administration attempted to normalize relations with Iran or Cuba either. The most important thing to consider is that the current framework affords no chance of solving the North Korean nuclear issue.

The Trump administration should give serious consideration to negotiating with Pyongyang on a freeze of its nuclear and missile programs - but it should also go beyond that and extend strategic consideration to normalizing relations. It’s the only way to broaden the range of options. It’s also a surer, safer way of reining China in than an arms race that turns Northeast Asia into a powder keg.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]