hankyoreh

A military parade in Pyongyang on Apr. 15 to mark the 105th birthday of North Korean founding leader Kim Il-sung. (AP/Yonhap News)

The crisis on the Korean Peninsula reaches its climax on Apr. 25, North Korea’s Military Foundation Day, when the North might carry out a nuclear test.

On Apr. 24, North Korea’s propaganda organs aimed at the South unleashed a relentless barrage of remarks that presume a war on the Korean Peninsula, referring to “South Korea planning to invade North Korea” and the “USS Carl Vinson being buried at sea.” These remarks largely seem to be propaganda aimed at the domestic audience and designed to soothe anxiety about pressure from the US. The fact that the US State Department has declared (despite North Korea’s provocative rhetoric) that it will not initiate a military clash and that it will not threaten the North can be taken as a positive sign.

The primary reason that tensions on the Korean Peninsula have become so high recently is North Korea’s attempts to bolster its nuclear capability. But the US shares a substantial amount of the responsibility for returning the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier the USS Carl Vinson back to waters near the Korean Peninsula and for remarks by senior American officials, including US President Donald Trump, about the “military option” and a “preemptive strike.” In that regard, the fact that Trump promised to cooperate on the North Korean issue during back-to-back telephone conversations with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Apr. 23 gives hope for a diplomatic solution.

It was also very atypical of the Chinese government to specifically call out North Korea on Apr. 24 and urge it not to carry out a nuclear test. The Chinese Foreign Ministry noted that the UN Security Council has expressly banned North Korea’s nuclear and missile activities and strongly urged related countries to exercise reason and restraint and to refrain from any action that would heighten tensions. One aspect of China’s hardline stance is illustrated by the fact that China’s state-run newspaper, The Global Times, declared on Apr. 22 that Beijing would engage in deterrence through diplomatic means if the US launched a surgical strike on North Korea’s nuclear facilities, but that a Chinese military intervention would be unnecessary.

If North Korea insists on carrying out a nuclear test even as its neighbors, including China, are calling for restraint, it will be unable to avoid serious repercussions. The time has now come for North Korea to adopt a definite position on whether it will maintain its current course of nuclear armament or whether it will instead seek a diplomatic solution. If Pyongyang refrains from carrying out a nuclear test after Apr. 25, it is likely that some space for diplomacy will open up.

As the North Korean nuclear crisis reaches a serious stage, this is no time for the South Korean presidential candidates to be standing on the sidelines. They need to be putting their heads together to figure out how to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue without a clash and how to establish peaceful inter-Korean relations.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]