hankyoreh

Recent changes in the international order have shown two major trends. One is the decline of Atlanticism under the leadership of the EU and US, amid developments such as Brexit and Washington’s trade protectionism. The other is the accelerating integration of Eurasia, with China’s Belt and Road Project and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, and now with the Chinese-Russian cooperation platform the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation expanding to include India and Pakistan. At the eastern tip of the Eurasian continent, the Korean Peninsula is facing greater security threats and international conflict than ever before as these two trends collide violently in the North Korean nuclear issue and the THAAD deployment.
The Park Geun-hye administration’s Eurasia Initiative positioned the Eurasian continent as a key space for strategic cooperation in South Korean foreign policy. It was the right attitude, but it ended up fizzling due to a number of issues. Some of the key reasons given for this include the lack of any close scrutiny of North Korea risk factors and the lax attitude Seoul adopted in cooperating with Western economic sanctions against Russia following its actions in Ukraine. The lack of any real control tower also more or less ruled out any kind of systematic implementation of policies. When this buffet-style list of collaborative projects, which lacked a financial procurement plan to back them, failed to yield results, its place was filled with a more superficial style of administration, with a major focus on staging events.
The Moon Jae-in administration is now going to have to transcend those limitations by establishing and implementing a new strategy for northern cooperation. Given the current situation with a global economic downturn, the reemergence of trade protectionism, and South Korea’s overreliance on China economically, Seoul urgently needs to increase its strategic solidarity with Russia and other countries in the north, if only to open new markets and claim more ground for balanced economic cooperation. It’s time for a new approach that boldly breaks with the emphasis on declarative cooperation to achieve collaboration of greater quality and substance.
First of all, summits with Russia need to be held on a regular basis, and a 2+2 (economic and foreign ministers) conference system will need to be set up to establish a solid northern cooperation system to allow for close collaboration economically and on resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. Given the importance of Eurasia, the Eurasian Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs European Affairs Bureau will need to be upgraded to its own department to allow for an efficient response to the formulation and implementation of a consistent medium- and long-term strategy.
Second, we will need to revamp the current northern cooperation system. This means setting up a Eurasian cooperation committee or some other exclusive body within the government to handle control tower duties and ensure expertise, responsibility, and continuity in policy. Even Japan, which unlike South Korea has joined in economic sanctions against Russia, instituted a minister-level position for Russian economic affairs to bolster collaboration with Russia. To resolve issues through the multilateral approach that the new administration is emphasizing in its foreign policy, we need greater strength and substance in our system for Russia and northern Eurasia policy.
Third, ongoing development in northern cooperation will require a stepwise approach, starting with the most feasible projects. As a first step, we will need to focus on laying the groundwork for cooperation and collaborating in industry areas with central projects of increasingly greater scale. Honoring agreements is an important part of efforts to build mutual trust, and while Seoul may start with more practical projects, it should also develop sophisticated cooperation plans for different scenarios that take the North Korea risk into account.
Fourth, if stronger northern cooperation does become the state’s medium and long-term international strategy, it is essential that we systematically train staff to support it. For that reason, we should seriously consider creating an educational institution specializing in Eurasian regional trade. Right now, we are sorely lacking in the specialized Eurasia workforce we need for countries such as Russia, India, Central Asia, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey. Setting up this kind of institution under one of the state think tanks would allow it to take advantage of the experts and infrastructure there - a far-sighted policy strategy by the state for a minimum budgetary commitment.

Lee Jae-young

Together with China, Russia is central to the geopolitical sea change happening in Eurasia. It is also an unavoidable partner in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue and laying the groundwork for the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula, in creating new areas for growth in the north, and in opening up routes for economic cooperation with other parts of northern Eurasia. In addition, it’s the only country on earth with influence over North Korea and China in political, economic, security, historical, and ideological terms. Achieving the vision of northern cooperation could offer the Moon administration a strategic asset toward solving the North Korean nuclear issue and establishing peace on the peninsula.

By Lee Jae-young, Director of the Department of Europe, Americas and Eurasia,at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

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