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South Korea President Moon Jae-in smiles cheerfully during his summit with US President Donald Trump at the White House’s Oval Office on may 22. (Blue House photo pool)

South President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump’s May 22 summit appears likely to go some way in getting preparations for an upcoming North Korea-US summit back on track after a brief period of turbulence. Trump said the US would guarantee North Korea regime security and provide large-scale economic support if it accepts complete denuclearization. While he had stated commitments to regime security and economic support in the past, it’s laudable that he made his position that much clearer in his meeting with President Moon.

Pyongyang’s decision on May 23 to allow South Korean reporters to visit and cover the closing of the Punggye Village nuclear test site can be understood as signaling its positive reading of the South Korea-US summit outcome. But with question marks remaining about whether the North Korea-US summit will go ahead, this is not a situation where the parties can afford to be complacent.

The most notable development of the summit came with Trump’s remarks about the methods of North Korean denuclearization. While he stated that a package deal would be preferred, he also hinted at some flexibility if this was not technically or physically feasible. The approach he described could be described as a “flexible package deal” partially accepting the step-by-step solution Pyongyang has demanded for the actual denuclearization process. It can also be seen as more clearly sketching the outline for the “Trump model” suggested by the White House.

With his remarks, Trump seemed to have in mind a scenario involving a package deal on denuclearization in broader terms, with a minimum number of steps and with corresponding rewards. In this sense, it can be seen as rather similar to the denuclearization solution Seoul has been reaching for in the past. It’s akin to a compromise between the US’s hopes for a package deal and the North’s insistence on regime security guarantees – a matter of reaching a comprehensive agreement with a minimum number of stages and a compressed timeline. The concessions and flexibility seen from Trump seem to have increased the US’s common ground the North, raising the odds of a successful summit.

North Korea’s decision to belatedly honor its promise to allow South Korean reporters to visit and cover the closing of the Punggye Village nuclear test site may mean it read Trump’s remarks from the summit as his attempt to break through the situation. It also seems to express Pyongyang’s positive take on President Moon’s efforts to win the US over.

This raises the chances that the temporary chill in inter-Korean relations will thaw soon enough. The test site’s closure could be seen as quite a large concession from North Korea’s perspective, signaling its de facto abandonment of future nuclear capabilities. Washington needs to proactively answer Pyongyang’s preemptive measure for the sake of the North Korea-US summit’s success.

For all the positive signals to Pyongyang included in them, the South Korean and US leaders’ remarks alone will not be enough to assuage the North’s fears. While Trump reiterated his commitment to the summit, he also added a note of uncertainty by raising the possibility of it being postponed or canceled if the US doesn’t get “certain conditions that we want.”

This may be a case of Trump adopting strategic ambiguity to maintain the upper hand in negotiations – but with North Korea-US relations as sensitive as they are, it’s an approach that could have unintended consequences.

Seoul will have to keep marshaling its forces until the very last moment to broaden the common ground between Pyongyang and Washington. One thing it needs to do as the “guide” in these North Korea-US negotiations is to see to it that the “Trump model” outline gets fleshed out more clearly into something the North can trust and accept.

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