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During his third visit to North Korea

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appears poised to visit North Korea as early as next week. Considering that multiple sources who are familiar with North Korea-US affairs have said that North Korean and American negotiators agreed during a recent meeting for Pompeo to visit the North at the end of August, it’s safe to assume that the trip has basically been finalized. The next question is whether this will lead to headway in the deadlock in the two sides’ talks about denuclearization. This is an opportunity that neither side should miss.

Pompeo’s trip to North Korea has been finalized because North Korea and the US were able to reach a considerable understanding during their backdoor negotiations. Though the negotiations ran aground when North Korea protested about the US’s “gangster-like demands” following Pompeo’s third visit to North Korea on July 6, the two sides appear to have found some common ground by toning down their respective demands.

North Korea has retreated a little from its original refusal to move forward on denuclearization without an end-of-war declaration, while the US has reportedly stopped insisting that the North must disclose a list of nuclear facilities before anything else can happen. What’s currently regarded as a plausible scenario is North Korea promising to disclose its nuclear facilities and materials and allow inspections while the US simultaneously promises to formally end the Korean War. Considering that swapping a list of nuclear materials and facilities with an end-of-war declaration would not be overly favorable to either side, there’s a considerable chance that the two sides will reach a compromise.

But we shouldn’t simply assume that Pompeo’s visit to the North means that the two sides will reach an agreement right away. On Aug. 15, the US Treasury Department slapped additional sanctions on Chinese and Russian companies that have violated the sanctions against North Korea. This leaves no doubt that the US will continue to enforce sanctions until tangible steps have been taken toward denuclearization. Sources admit that they’re unsure about how much progress North Korean and American negotiators have made on the nuclear facility disclosure and end-of-war declaration.

In the end, we won’t know until Pompeo arrives in North Korea for the negotiations. In order to ensure that Pompeo’s visit to the North results in an agreement – unlike last time – the two sides will have to find more common ground through more through preliminary negotiations.

If Pompeo can orchestrate a swap of an end-of-war declaration for a nuclear facility disclosure during his fourth trip to the North, it’s clear that developments on the Korean Peninsula will shift into high gear. That would give South and North Korea the peace of mind to lay out a blueprint for improving relations during their summit in September and increase the likelihood of the end-of-war declaration being made during the UN General Assembly in New York at the end of September. The South Korean government needs to keep acting as a mediator as long as possible to ensure that Pompeo’s fourth visit to the North becomes a turning point in North Korea-US relations.

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]