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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Kim Yong-nam

On Jan. 8, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made an unannounced visit to China, where he held a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This was Kim’s fourth visit to China since assuming power. Considering that Kim’s previous visits to China were clustered around the first North Korea-US summit last year, this visit may well signal that the second North Korea-US summit is imminent. We hope that this summit between the leaders of North Korea and China will lead to a breakthrough in the North Korea-US denuclearization negotiations, which are currently at a deadlock, and pave the way for the second North Korea-US summit.

Since this year marks the 70th anniversary of North Korea and China establishing diplomatic relations, it makes some sense that Kim would choose a visit to China as his first diplomatic action this year. Nevertheless, the reason that Kim visited China at the very beginning of the year probably involves North Korea’s need to strengthen its ties with China leading up to its summit with the US. Kim may well intend to use China’s support as leverage for strengthening his bargaining power before engaging in talks with the US.

Kim’s declaration of his intention to strengthen cooperation with China during his New Year’s address is also worth noting in connection with his visit to China. In that address, Kim pledged to work closely with the parties of the armistice agreement to actively pursue multilateral negotiations aimed at converting the armistice system to a peace regime, which can be seen as recognizing China as one of the parties involved in building a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

This strategic shift represents a clear departure from North Korea’s past ambivalence toward China’s participation. We can assume that Kim visited China with a plan to strengthen China-North Korea cooperation according to a roadmap of his own that extends at least through 2019 and possibly past 2020.

Under the current circumstances, the questions attracting the most attention are when and where the second North Korea-US summit will be held and what its agenda will be. That’s also why all eyes are on Kim during his visit to China. In light of last year’s patterns, Kim’s next round of summit diplomacy is likely to be the second North Korea-US summit. Indeed, there are numerous indications that the summit will soon take place. US President Donald Trump said on Jan. 6 that the location of the second summit will be announced before long, and the White House reportedly sent a team to survey Bangkok, Thailand; Hanoi, Vietnam; and the US state of Hawaii as possible sites for the second summit.

For the moment, of course, we should avoid going out on a limb about the potential impact of Kim’s visit to China. When Kim visited China in the run-up to the first North Korea-US summit last year, it actually jeopardized the summit by putting the US on its guard against China. But we must pay heed to the fact that the recent trends in China-US relations are different from last year. Following a summit with Xi last month, Trump said that the two sides had agreed to cooperate “100 percent” on the North Korea issue. Also encouraging is the fact that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred to China as a good partner for North Korea’s denuclearization at the very time that Kim was setting out on his visit to China.

Yet the fact is the situation remains fluid. The second North Korea-US summit hasn’t been confirmed yet, as it had been last year, nor are there any signs of high-level or working-level talks aimed at arranging the second summit. In such a situation, China has a crucial role to play. China has restored its cooperative relationship with the US and is maintaining its strong friendship with North Korea. In that sense, Kim’s visit to China is more likely than ever before to serve as a major turning point in creating a breakthrough in the denuclearization issue. The South Korean government needs to keep a close eye on Kim and Xi’s meeting while cooperating closely with related countries to ensure that Kim’s visit helps bring about progress in the denuclearization negotiations and speed up the timeframe of the second North Korea-US summit.

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