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US President Donald Trump says the Mueller reports show no evidence of collusion with Russia on the White House South Lawn on Mar. 24. (AP)

A few days ago, I found myself sitting in front of 30 or so Americans in a small theater in Washington, DC. One of the people in the audience asked me whom Koreans were more afraid of – Donald Trump or Kim Jong-un. I told them that I’m more afraid of Trump, while emphasizing that that was strictly my personal feeling. I said I was afraid of the randomness and unpredictability of a man who left the negotiating table in Hanoi without a deal and who overturned an announcement by his own administration a day later on Twitter, a man who would surprise no one if he tweeted tomorrow that he plans to see Kim Jong-un next month. There were murmurs of agreement from the audience. Though Kim is portrayed in the US as a cruel dictator who will never give up his nuclear weapons, these Americans nodded in agreement when I said I was more scared of Trump.

Next, I asked audience members whether they thought that Trump would be reelected next November. To my surprise, some 20 people raised their hands.

“Wow,” I said, “You’re not talking about your desired outcome, are you?”

They weren’t. Some people dropped their heads as they lowered their hands, while others let out a heavy sigh.

This gave me a good sense of the mixed feelings of Americans who are appalled and frightened of Trump while simultaneously expecting him to prevail in next year’s presidential election.

It would be rash to base a prediction of the US presidential election on the reaction of barely 30 people in Washington, DC. But my experience on that day felt much more vivid that the figures in the numerous polls that are produced in the US. Pollsters find that Trump’s approval rating is in the low 40% range, which would seem to present an obstacle to his reelection. But the actual mood in the US is often different from what the polls say. There are some who bear so much antipathy to Trump that they would vote for a dog over him, but the majority agree that Trump won’t be easy to beat.

The report resulting from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into the Russia scandal is likely to make it easier for Trump to be reelected. By clearing Trump of charges that he colluded with Russia in the presidential election, the report frees him from the scandal that has consumed the bulk of his time in office. While the report doesn’t guarantee Trump’s victory, it does remove a serious threat to his presidency and allow him to focus on getting reelected with much more confidence.

The real battle in the next presidential election begins after the Mueller report. The biggest variable is the economy. Analysts in the US argue that Trump would win if people voted today because of the relatively high economic growth rate, the rise in disposable income, the low unemployment rate and low oil prices. In a recent poll by CNN, 71% of respondents said the US economy is doing well. But it’s impossible to tell whether the economic situation will remain favorable to Trump next year.

Another key variable is the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. So far, 15 people representing women as well as a range of generations, races and ideological persuasions have thrown their hat into the ring and are vying for the nomination. But so far, none of them appear to be a surefire antidote to Trump.

In contrast, Trump has given up any pretense of amassing sweeping national support and is catering to his base as he methodically assembles the votes that will help him stay in the Oval Office. In the 2016 election, Trump lost to Hillary Clinton in the popular vote, by a margin of 46.1% to 48.2%, but he won in the electoral college, by 306 to 232, because of the winner-takes-all system that applies in most of the states. Once again, Trump is expected to stick with this formula as he campaigns in the battleground states.

What does it mean for the Korean Peninsula that Trump’s remaining term in office could end up lasting not for 1 year and 10 months more but for 5 years and 10 months? Trump is faced with the choice of boldly negotiating with North Korea or just keeping tensions in check while kicking the can down the road on a major deal. Those choices don’t seem to be making Trump nervous, which is something that North Korea ought to bear in mind.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

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