hankyoreh

Kim Myong-gil

Lee Do-hoon, South Korea’s special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, met on Oct. 8 in Washington with Stephen Biegun, the US special representative for North Korea, to discuss response plans in the wake of the North Korea-US working-level talks in Stockholm. Lee explained that they “discussed how to carry on the momentum for North Korea-US dialogue,” although he remained quiet about the specifics. That may have been intended to ensure security, but it could also mean they didn’t identify any clear alternative – suggesting less than totally optimistic prospects for North Korea-US negotiations resuming quickly.

What should be noted, however, is the US’ attitude and its obvious efforts to avoid provoking Pyongyang. The use of the somewhat softer and more inclusive term “complete denuclearization” in explanatory materials released by the State Department after the meeting – as opposed to the “final, fully verifiable denuclearization” it has used to date in referring to North Korea’s nuclear disarmament – stands out in particular. It suggests they are avoiding using a term that rubs Pyongyang the wrong way. The US also didn’t add its name to a statement adopted by six members of the UN Security Council denouncing North Korea’s recent SLBM launch. This could be taken as meaning that Washington hopes to avoid pressuring Pyongyang too much and drawing it back into negotiations somehow.

The US is reported to have suggested some “creative ideas” during the Stockholm talks, while North Korea dismissed its proposals as merely another version of the same calls for “denuclearization first, rewards later.” Pyongyang remains adamant in its position that discussions can only continue if the US offers some form of corresponding measure in return for its own preemptive actions, including halts to nuclear and ICBM testing. In particular, it is pressuring Washington to honor the promise made by US President Donald Trump at the North Korea-US summit in Singapore last year to suspend joint military exercises with South Korea. Shortly after the Stockholm talks collapsed, the US called on North Korea to meet again within the next two weeks. But getting the negotiations started again may be a tall order if North Korea’s precondition of resolving “security guarantees” isn’t met.

Once the negotiation deadline named by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un passes at year’s end, there is a strong chance North Korea will resume the nuclear tests and ICBM test-launches it suspended. That outcome would leave the North Korea-US negotiations in a state of disrepair – a situation that would be an unqualified disaster for both Trump and Kim. If a worst-case scenario is to be avoided, both sides are going to need to shake off what happened in Stockholm and sit down together again as soon as possible. There simply isn’t enough time for them to play the tug-of-war game until the other side gives in.

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