hankyoreh

On my first visit to Pyongyang in two years, I found it to be still teeming with energy. Even with an even- and odd-numbered vehicle system in place, it felt as though there were more cars on the roads than two years prior. Compared with taxis, there had been a visible increase in means of public transportation, including buses, trolleys, and trolley buses. There are also seemed to be far more shops and restaurants than before. Over 80 new restaurants were said to have taken up new residence on Ryomyong Street alone. I was also told the restaurants on the side streets were in a heated competition to attract customers with their quality and prices. Supermarkets and small stores were filled with shoppers even after 8 pm. Although a severe typhoon had passed through North Korea earlier this year, the entire public was mobilized to minimize damage, I was told. The agricultural harvest was also reported to be much better than last year’s, a difference attributed in large part to the introduction of the farmland responsibility (family farming) system.

During two visits to Pyongyang the year before last, I had repeatedly asked how long North Korea would be able to hold out under unprecedented sanctions by the UN. The changes I saw in Pyongyang this time around were enough to make the very question seem quaint. Everywhere I looked, newly built structures in traditional Korean colors harmonized with the autumn foliage. Amid the lush fall greenery of Moran Peak, I could see senior citizens dancing merrily in traditional hanbok clothing. With its confident look, Pyongyang was clearly sending some kind of message.

Last year, South Korean President Moon Jae-in delivered a speech in front of 150,000 Pyongyang residents. The Pyongyang audience was reportedly overcome with emotion, having arrived at the stadium with no knowledge that the South Korean President would be there or that he would be giving a speech. The place was described as a “cauldron of excitement.” There was a firm belief that the decision at the highest levels represented the feeling at the highest levels, I was told. But the hopes did not last long. For all the enormous expectations that had been built up, he had not kept the promise he had made before the people of Pyongyang, they said. The disappointment ran as deep as the hopes had been high.

After the Pyongyang Declaration last year, North Korea firmly believed at least one gateway could open up, either at Mt. Kumgang or the Kaesong Industrial Complex. This faith carried over to the New Year’s address by leader Kim Jong-un, who declared his willingness to resume operations at the complex and tourism at Mt. Kumgang “without any precondition and in return for nothing.” Such hopes in South Korea, however, were reportedly abandoned after business owners of the Kaesong complex were denied no fewer than eight times by the South Korean government in their attempts to visit and inspect their facilities. The problem is that North Korea’s people believe the current spiral in inter-Korean relations has its roots in Moon’s failure to keep his promise, either on his own account or on the account of others. Pyongyang residents who heard his speech first hand recalled him stressing the “principle of national autonomy: we are the ones who determine the fate of the Korean people.”

Is this just another roller coaster ride for inter-Korean relations? North Korean scholars said that North Korea today has transitioned from a construction “boom” to a “halcyon age” for building. Confidence is through the roof with the completion of massive construction efforts like the Kalma Tourist Zone, Samjiyon Special Tourism District, and Yangdok Hot Springs Tourist Area. Along similar lines, Kim Jong-un’s reference to tearing down tourist facilities at Mt. Kumgang is reported to be based on major plans for a “revolutionary” reconstruction of the resort’s structures in the North Korean style. North Korean scholars are confident that it will be able to attract numerous tourists to Mt. Kumgang from at home and overseas, even if that does not include South Korean visitors.

What is particularly striking about the changes in North Korea is the new role played by the munitions industry. That industry is reported to be playing an enormous role in everything from the production of daily essentials to massive projects like ski resorts in hot spring tourist areas. The more energy the North devotes to building its economy, the less likely it is that inter-Korean relations will ride the rollercoaster back into renewed tensions. With the enormous efforts it is putting into building its economy, it is not going to want to upset the apple cart in its relations with Seoul.

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Jin Jingyi, professor at Peking University

ndeed, there was no sense anywhere of hostility toward the South. If anything, the confidence exuded a belief that things will eventually work out between the two sides. What North Koreans have wanted has been for the South to keep the faith with its own actions and decisions. Perhaps the ball is in South Korea’s court now.

By Jin Jingyi, professor at Peking University

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]