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South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo addresses the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee regarding speculation about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Apr. 29. (Yonhap News)

Rumors that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is suffering from health issues have been circulating in South Korea and overseas for the past 10 days or so. All sorts of speculation and reports are being thrown around as though they were proven facts. We’re even seeing fake news reports of Kim’s death making the rounds, with footage edited in from the death of his father and predecessor Kim Jong-un.

Appearing before the National Assembly National Defense Committee on Apr. 29, Minister of National Defense Jeong Kyeong-doo responded to the rumors of Kim’s ill health by saying that “we have all the information and have done a comprehensive evaluation,” adding that this had “all been through a confirmation process with the National Security Council standing committee.” He also said that the “information we have now does not indicate any unusual trends” and reiterated a message calling for “firm trust in the South Korean government’s position.”

Similar explanations had previously been given by the Blue House and Minister of Unification Kim Yeon-chul. In the absence of verified information, the rational approach for the moment is to trust in the government’s explanation. Yet some conservative experts and media have been assuming that something terrible has befallen Kim, and even going so far as to make predictions about how will succeed him. This is deeply irresponsible behavior.

The predictions of a “sudden upheaval” in Pyongyang based on the recent rumors surrounding Kim’s health are nothing new. The argument is that with its top leader dead, North Korea is poised to collapse -- a rehash of the same collapse predictions and calls for “unification through absorption” that were rampant during the Kim Young-sam, Lee Myung-bak, and Park Geun-hye administrations. The difference then was that the government was taking the lead in encouraging speculation. When Kim Il-sung died in July 1994, then President Kim Young-sam likened North Korea to a “broken airplane about to crash.” Senior foreign affairs and national security officials at the time asserted that North Korea’s collapse was as close as three days away and would take three years at the longest.

A satellite image of what’s assumed to be North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s train, which has been stationed near a resort in the city of Wonsan for several days. (provided by 38 North)

When Kim Jong-il died in December 2011, Lee Myung-bak trotted out the collapse predictions again, declaring in September 2012 that “unification is coming like a thief in the night.” The Park Geun-hye administration predicted a unification “jackpot” and set up a preparatory committee for reunification. Pyongyang used this as a justification for its nuclear and missile development, objecting to what it called a “conspiracy to achieve unification by absorption.”

As a stakeholder in Korean Peninsula issues, the South Korean government needs to accurately analyze the recent situation and make thorough preparations for all possible scenarios. These conservative experts and media ought to refrain from making claims that are based on nothing more than speculation and jumping to conclusions. That sort of thing helps no one.

The speculation about Kim Jong-un’s death does not appear likely to abate until North Korea comes out with some report on him that includes photographs and/or video footage to provide evidence. In that sense, we look forward to North Korea’s authorities moving quickly to present their official stance. The uncertainty that Kim’s health rumors have caused for the Korean Peninsula political situation needs to be dispelled.

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]