hankyoreh

Kim Yo-jong, first vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea. (Yonhap News)

Just two days before the 20th anniversary of the inter-Korean summit that took place on June 15, 2020, North Korea released a highly belligerent statement in which it promised to “surely break with the South Korean authorities” and take “retaliatory actions.” This June 13 statement by Kim Yo-jong, first vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), warned of military action against South Korea. “The right to [take] the next action against the enemy will be entrusted to the general staff of our army,” Kim said.

Kim also promised the demolition of the Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office in Kaesong. She said she’d given these instructions “by exercising my power authorized by the Supreme Leader, our Party and the state” and that these plans reflected “public opinion at home.” Her remarks suggests that North Korea’s policy of hostility toward South Korea is a strategic decision by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong’s older brother, and that the policy will remain in place for quite some time. The situation is growing graver by the day.

Several interlocking factors explain why North Korea continues to ratchet up its pressure against South Korea through such harsh language. While the North has centered its criticism on the launch of balloons filled with propaganda leaflets by North Korean defector groups, current developments and internal circumstances suggest that the North has decided to return to its strategy of brinkmanship.

Another factor appears to be North Korea’s disappointment and resentment about the fact that South Korea’s relationship with the US has kept it from taking meaningful action over the past two years. Some analysts also think that North Korea hopes to overcome a triple challenge — the failure of its second summit with the US in Hanoi last year, the prolongation of sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic — by finding external scapegoats to shore up unity at home.

North Korean women denounce the launhces of balloons filled by anti-North propaganda by North Korean defector groups in front of the Museum of American War Atrocities in Sinchon County, South Hwanghae Province, on June 9.

The standing committee of South Korea’s National Security Council held an emergency meeting late at night a few hours after Kim Yo-jong’s statement was published, showing that the Blue House takes the situation very seriously. It won’t be easy to resume dialogue in the short term. But now, more than ever, we must take steps to ensure the situation doesn’t deteriorate irreparably. We urgently need the wisdom and foresight to create opportunities.

For now, the South Korean government needs to quickly address the issue of launching propaganda balloons into North Korea, an issue that threatens both inter-Korean relations and the safety of citizens in border regions. Furthermore, Seoul should look for a way out while boosting the autonomy of inter-Korean relations, without being overly constrained by the US, which is neglecting the North Korea issue ahead of its presidential election.

North Korea needs to refrain from pushing things too far. The North needs the clear-eyed realization that it would be difficult to walk back a withdrawal from the Sept. 19 Comprehensive Military Agreement and a military provocation made in response to the propaganda leaflet launches. That would wipe away the trust the leaders of South and North Korea have worked so hard to build and also cause South Korean public opinion to grow frosty. It would also poison international opinion about the North and have a negative impact on North Korea-US talks when they resume after the presidential election. The North isn’t doing itself any favors when it uses harsh language against South Korea and rejects inter-Korean relations per se whenever it runs into trouble in its relations with the US.

June 15 will mark the 20th anniversary of the declaration of a new era of reconciliation and peace that was made during the first meeting between the leaders of South and North Korea since Korea’s liberation from Japan’s colonial occupation. North Korea needs to stop putting undue pressure on South Korea and to return to the spirit of the inter-Korean agreements.

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