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South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee (left) and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former finance minister of Nigeria and former managing director of the World Bank, are the last two candidates in the bid to become director-general of the World Trade Organization. (Yonhap News)

The selection process for the next director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is drawing to a close, with the announcement of the winner just around the corner.

The deliberations among the WTO’s 164 member states will wrap up on Oct. 27, during a meeting of the WTO’s general council in Geneva, Switzerland. The announcement of the next director-general — which will be either South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee, 53, or Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, 66, former finance minister of Nigeria and former managing director of the World Bank — could come as soon as Oct. 28. At the latest, the final decision will be made by Nov. 7.

If either of the two final candidates receives an overwhelming amount of support, they will be immediately named the next director-general. A definite lead would create leverage to persuade countries backing the other candidate to join the consensus.

If both candidates have a similar level of support, a decision could take a little longer. In that case, major trading blocs such as the EU, the US, and China are expected to hold additional deliberations behind closed doors. If a few of those countries are dead set against the presumed winner, the question would be put to a vote.

But the director-general has never been decided by vote during the 70 years of the WTO (launched in 1995) and the arrangement that preceded it, known as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, established in 1947). Even powerful countries would be reluctant to break with such a robust tradition.

Sources close to the government say that, given current trends, the WTO’s next director-general is likely to be announced prior to the US presidential election, on Nov. 3.

“Any influence exerted by the US will probably be decided by the current Trump administration [regardless of the outcome of the election],” a high-ranking government economist said.

So far, the US has publicly maintained a neutral stance. The US itself bears a considerable share of the responsibility for the WTO’s current fecklessness, the very situation that caused the former director-general to resign with a year left in his tenure. As such, the US might not try to sway the decision.

In fact, the bloc that may well decide who becomes the next director-general is the 27-country EU, which has been steering the WTO since its inception. While the EU intends to endorse a single preferred candidate, member states are still sending conflicting signals. Some claim it’s time for an African to lead the WTO, while others are plumping for Yoo Myung-hee.

This election is clearly more about regionalism and nepotism than about the candidates themselves, with votes congregating to candidates with geographical or historical affinities. The 164 member states in the WTO include 44 countries in Africa, 37 in Europe, 49 in Asia and the Pacific, 31 in Central and South America, and three in North America.

This week alone, South Korean President Moon Jae-in spoke on the phone with the leaders of 10 countries, including India, Denmark, Luxembourg, Italy, Egypt, Australia, Brazil, and Malaysia, devoting his energy to Yoo’s campaign. Since China, Japan, and the African bloc have already voiced their support for the Nigerian candidate, Moon’s strategy is to win over countries in South American, Europe, and Asia that are favorable to South Korea.

“This has transcended trade and become a diplomatic issue on which the national pride of South Korea and Nigeria is staked,” said a high-ranking trade official.

When Yoo was preparing to throw her hat into the ring three months ago, there was reportedly skepticism in some corners of the government. “The diplomatic sector distanced itself from the idea at first, thinking Yoo had little chance of victory,” a high-ranking government economist said.

Early on in her campaign, another senior official complained that the Foreign Ministry ought to be more proactive about Yoo’s candidacy. But Moon took charge of the campaign midway through the election, and the mood changed dramatically after Yoo was named one of the final two contestants.

As a sitting trade minister, Yoo has forged a solid foundation of mutual trust and support while setting up free trade agreements with several middle-sized countries. The Nigerian candidate, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has reportedly built a network with officials in various developing countries based on her political career. She spent 25 years at the World Bank, reaching the position of managing director, where she aided the economic growth of developing countries in the Third World.

The WTO director-general, with a term of four years, has less personal power than the leaders of other international organizations, such as the UN. In order to shepherd the WTO, the director-general must work with, or against, envoys from its 164 member states at the headquarters in Geneva. Success in the role, in other words, requires not only expertise in the area of trade but the political and diplomatic ability to mediate trade conflicts between countries and regions. The Blue House and the South Korean government are modestly looking forward to the results of “Yoo’s valiant struggle against the odds.”

After negotiations in the Doha Development Round basically ran aground, the WTO has been accused of being useless, and some of the world’s largest trading countries frequently and flagrantly ignore the norms of free trade. In effect, the WTO ship is adrift and leaking, and the captain has fled the scene. As one of the best-known beneficiaries of the multilateral system of free trade, South Korea keenly hopes to hear that a South Korean has been named director-general, a seasoned captain who can take the tiller and restore the ship to its right course.

By Cho Kye-wan, staff reporter

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