hankyoreh

Former US President Donald Trump (right) and his wife Melania Trump (center) watch the Game 4 of the baseball World Series between the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves on Oct. 30, 2021, in Atlanta. (AP/Yonhap News)

A recent letter to the editor published by the New York Times argued that Liz Cheney, a Republican member of the US House of Representatives, should run for president in 2024.

Cheney is considered one of the most prominent “anti-Trump” figures in the Republican Party. She voted in favor of the second impeachment bill against the 75-year-old Trump while he was still president last January, and she currently serves as a member of the special commission investigating the Capitol riot of Jan. 6.

According to the piece, Cheney could thwart Trump’s attempt at reelection by running as a third-party candidate. Even if she isn’t elected, the writer explained, she would pick up enough “Never Trump” votes to split the Republican Party vote.

In the US, the prospect of Trump being reelected president in 2024 is seen by voters as a real enough threat to warrant this kind of strategic thinking. Is the Trump comeback they fear something that could actually happen three years from now?

Nov. 3 marked the one-year anniversary of the US presidential election of 2020, which ended with a victory for Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden.

But in the year since his defeat, Trump has not been behaving like a former president. Instead, he’s been campaigning like an active politician with an eye toward returning to the White House.

He has been staging rallies, insisting without evidence that the last presidential election was a “fraud.” He’s been showing off his political weight, sharing messages of support for his followers and spewing invective at his opponents in the party, including the 12 lawmakers who voted for his impeachment. Firing off daily statements denouncing Biden under the name “45th President of the United States,” he has been raising funds non-stop with calls to “save” the US.

Trump has not declared his intent to run again, but he has strongly hinted at it. “I may even decide to beat them for a third time,” he was quoted as saying. He has also said the only reason he would choose not to run is if he got a “bad call from a doctor.”

In a September interview, his longtime adviser Jason Miller gave the chances of Trump running again as “somewhere between 99% and 100%.” The Washington Post recently reported that his aides were encouraging him to wait a bit long before declaring any plans to run again.

Hong Min Park, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, told the Hankyoreh, “Trump is getting the results he wants in terms of public interest and influence simply by hinting that he ‘might run again.’”

“Rather than going through the hassle of officially putting together a camp, hiring people and reporting funds to the authorities, it’s better for him to put off a candidacy declaration as long as possible,” Park suggested.

The biggest source of strength for Trump as he seeks reelection is his deeply loyal support base.

In a survey of 1,342 adults conducted on Oct. 15–18 by Quinnipiac University, 58% of all respondents answered “no” when asked if they wanted to see Trump run again in 2024. But among supporters of the Republican Party, 78% said they wanted Trump to run again.

Other survey findings announced on Oct. 27 by Politico and Morning Consult had 35% of all respondents — and 60% of respondents identifying as supporters of the Republican Party — agreeing that the result of the 2020 presidential election should be overturned.

Survey findings shared by Grinnell College on Oct. 20 showed an even 40-40 split between Biden and Trump when respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the 2024 election were held today.

Trump’s popularity is such that no potential rivals can be found within the Republican Party. Some of the potential candidates — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Senator Tom Cotton — have kept their cards close to their vest, watching for cues from Trump.

The Republican Party leadership remains in Trump’s grip as well. Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who blamed Trump for the Capitol riot, has said he would “absolutely” support Trump if he runs again.

A solid support base alone does not guarantee election. When he was elected in 2016, Trump benefited from popular antipathy toward establishment politics and his own image as a successful businessman who would shake up the Washington political world.

But if he were to try again in 2024, he would face considerable obstacles. Among the factors in his way are the stigma of being the only president in constitutional history to be twice impeached by the House, his role in rejecting the election outcome and inciting the Capital riot, and his irresponsible response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Investigations by prosecutors could also trip him up. New York prosecutors are investigating The Trump Organization for tax evasion and other improprieties. In Georgia, prosecutors are investigating allegations that he pressured a state official to overturn voting results shortly after the 2020 election.

Adam Schiff, a Democratic Party representative who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, suggested that a presidential run “may keep [Trump] one step ahead of the jailer.”

Also putting Trump at a disadvantage compared with the last election are the special committee investigation into the Capitol riot and the increased difficulty he faces reaching the public, having lost the Twitter account he used to reach 80 million followers in the past.

In response to the latter blow, he plans to attempt to fight back with the launch of his own social media platform called Truth Social. He has also announced plans to launch the Trump Media and Technology Group to rival Facebook, Netflix and CNN.

What do Trump’s election changes look like from an objective standpoint?

In last year’s presidential election, Biden won 81 million votes to Trump’s 74 million. Another run by Trump is very likely to rally supporters of the Democratic Party, and it is unclear whether Trump can achieve enough moderate votes to surpass his 2020 total by very much.

Also, Trump would be 78 years old by the time of the next presidential election. In a March interview with the US press, professor at American University Allan Lichtman — who has accurately predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984 except for the one in 2000 — said he expected Trump to lose the next election, citing the fact that he is not an incumbent and the tarnishing of his brand as a successful businessman.

Even so, the prospect of another presidential bid by Trump remains more or less a constant.

Wonseok Song, executive director of the Korean American Grassroots Conference and a close observer of US politics, said, “Look at all the people who are refusing to get vaccinated because they believe in COVID-19 vaccine conspiracy theories.”

“Those are the people who are going to get drawn into Trump’s Truth Social, and they represent 30% to 40% of Americans,” he added.

“Overseas, it might seem absurd that Trump would come back, but if you objectively consider the reality in the US, it’s quite possible,” he predicted.