U.S., Japan may be developing joint plan on N.K.: media

Posted on : 2007-01-06 14:03 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Plan would be similar to one in existence between U.S., S.K.
North Korea's military parades
North Korea's military parades

Japanese newspapers have reported that Japan and the United States are drawing up a joint contingency plan in case of an emergency on the Korean peninsula.

Japan’s Asahi Shimbun reported on January 5 reported that the Japanese government is trying to plan measures regarding possible emergency situations due to North Korea, based on the premise that about 100,000 to 150,000 refugees could come into Japan should the North’s regime collapse. The Yomiuri Shimbun the same day reported that the U.S and Japan are trying to formulate a joint plan based on possible such emergencies stemming from the situation in North Korea.

In September 1997, when the U.S. and Japan set up a new defense alliance guideline, both sides agreed to map out the joint contingency plan within 10 years. However, the joint plan had been in limbo after the September 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. and the emergence of differences in approach between Washington and Tokyo.

But discussion of the plan were revitalized after North Korea’s missile launches and nuclear test. Some Japanese media reported that "urgent situations on the Korean peninsula" played a role in the discussion renewal. Larry Niksch, who works on Korean affairs at the U.S. Congressional Research Service, said the move came after a diplomatic stalemate between involved countries over the North’s nuclear standoff.

South Korea and the U.S. have planned for potential joint military countermeasures after the North’s nuclear test. Their first plan is the revision of the so-called operational plan (OPPLAN) 5027, a joint contingency plan against a hypothetical North Korean attack. The revision would include additional measures to cope with the scenario of a nuclear-armed North Korea. The second plan of the U.S. and South Korea is to add similar details to the so-called concept plan (CONPLAN) 5029, which is aimed at preparing for any large-scale non-military event stemming from internal situations in the North, including the refugee situation. The second plan was agreed to between Seoul and Washington in October last year at a security consultation meeting.

The Korean government clarified that any details added to the OPPLAN 5029 would not include potential military operations.

As for the U.S.-Japan contingency plan, it is reported that the two sides have agreed to complete their plan within a year. A Japanese government official said both sides in September of the last year agreed on the swift completion because of the North Korea’s missile launches in July last year, as well as the North’s nuclear test in October.

On December 4, U.S. and Japanese government officials held a meeting in Tokyo. A Japanese defense ministry official said the meeting was held to revise the contingency plan. Richard Rollins, deputy assistant defense secretary of the U.S., said of the meeting that there was good progress made, and that he expects that more progress would be made in the next meeting.

Concept plan (CONPLAN) 5055, a U.S.-Japan joint contingency plan against North Korea’s missile capabilities, bears strategic links with South Korea-U.S. contingency plans. Japanese media have speculated that the U.S. and Japan may move to modify the 5055 plan into the military operational plan mentioned above as being in the works. In addition, with the U.S.-Japan contingency plan in the works in the wake of the North’s nuclear test, and with the South Korea-U.S. 5027 and 5029 plans currently under revision to bolster nuclear defense capabilities, there is a possibility that South Korea, the U.S., and Japan may work together to revise these contingency plans.

CONPLAN 5029 was developed in 1999 to cope with the potential fallout from internal matters in North Korea, such as coups, large-scale demonstrations, regime collapse, or a massive exodus of refugees. In 2005, South Korea and U.S. military authorities agreed to add specific military measures to the 5029 plan, but the Korean presidential office halted the agreement. The presidential office is believed to have done so because it viewed internal situations in North Korea as a matter of sovereignty of the Korean peninsula. Reportedly, under the proposed 5029 plan that the presidential office halted, if a military coup erupts in North Korea, the U.S. forces will have the right to enter the North and gain control of the situation militarily. But at the behest of the presidential office, South Korea and the U.S. agreed not to add military operational schemes to the 5029 plan at the security consultation meeting in October, according to a government source.

The numerical values assigned to U.S. military operational plans bear meaning. If a plan starts with the numbers "50," the plan refers to the Korean peninsula. The last two numerals are believed to represent specific situations, such as an attack by the North or the collapse of its regime.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

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