hankyoreh

North Korea has not yet shut down its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, meaning it has missed the deadline set under the February 13 agreement forged at the six-party talks to end its nuclear program.

If the North does not carry out the agreed steps until April 20, the South Korean government will inevitably have to abrogate its contract to ship 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil to the North, which it was supposed to give the North in exchange for shutting down its nuclear reactor under the terms of the six-party talks agreement. Observers are worried the contract the Seoul government made with an oil company may have to be completely reworked and will result in a large loss of money.

Under the February 13 agreement, the North promised to shut down and seal its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon within 60 days - namely by April 14 - and invite inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to check the facilities. This was in return for energy assistance from the five other countries party to the talks: South Korea, the United States , Japan, China , and Russia.

As it takes about 30 days to prepare a shipment of heavy fuel oil of that size, Seoul launched its preparation work immediately following the February 13 agreement. The government signed a contract with GS Caltex on March 7 and three of the company's oil tankers have been waiting at Yeocheon Port since March 25. It will take around 10 additional days to produce, ship, transport, and unload the oil in a North Korean port under the contract. But its ships to the North will only launch after Pyongyang shuts down the nuclear facility according to the February 13 agreement.

The problem is timing. Unless the North shuts down its Yongbyon facilities by April 20, the contract [with GS Caltex] will be cancelled automatically and the South Korean government will suffer a loss of over 3.6 billion won (US$3.7 million).

Then, the process will begin all over again if the February 13 agreement is reworked to push the deadline back and the North subsequently follows through with its responsibility.

A government official said, "It will take another 30 days to make a contract [with an oil company] and prepare the oil for shipment."

The government reportedly plans to wait and see until April 20 and then decide whether it will work with GS Caltex on another contract.

During a meeting of related ministers held at the presidential office on April 15, the additional problem of providing rice aid to the North was one of the main issues discussed. Rice aid is normally shipped to the North by the South Korean government outside the aegis of the six-party framework. However, shipments were halted last year when the North tested long-range missiles in July and a nuclear device in October. The two Koreas were scheduled to make an official agreement on resuming a rice aid to the North at the April 18 South-North Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee meeting. But restarting the shipments has been thrown into doubt due to the North's missing the deadline to act on its pledge to begin the Yongbyon reactor dismantlement process.

The participants of the April 15 ministerial meeting postponed making a decision on the matter until after April 17, a day before the opening of the South-North Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee meeting. Though there were some dissenting opinions at the meeting, most of the participants placed emphasis on maintaining a flexible position toward the North, according to a key government official. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade took a negative position on restarting rice aid, but considering current thawing South-North relations, the South government decided to move forward with the April 18 North-South cooperation meeting as well as the decision on rice aid, barring any emergency developments.

But Kim Nam-sik, an official of the Unification Ministry, said on April 16, "As of now, I can't say anything even regarding whether the committee meeting will open as scheduled." His comments represented a departure from the decision made at the April 15 ministerial meeting, according to sources close to the issue.

There are various reasons why the government would be taking an ambiguous stance on the matter. As the momentum of the six-party talks has weakened due to the North's failure to meet the latest deadline, it is necessary for the government to put pressure on the communist nation to carry out the February 13 agreement. In addition, if the government shows an intention to provide rice to the North without receiving reciprocal action from Pyongyang, a controversy may erupt over Seoul "giving away aid fruitlessly" to Pyongyang. Understandably, the government wants to avoid such a situation.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]