hankyoreh

In the wake of rapid geopolitical change on the Korean peninsula, including progress in North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, reconciliatory moves in inter-Korean relations and the possibility of a peace regime, an analyst expected a change by November 2008 that would decide the fate of the Korean peninsula over the next six or seven years. If things go smoothly, the analyst said, three or four parties will declare the end of the Korean War and a formal peace treaty in July or August of next year. In September or October, North Korea and the United States are expected to establish diplomatic relations.

Kim Sung-bae, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Security Strategy, a privately-run security think tank in Seoul, said that if the two Koreas fail to dismantle the Cold War regime and declare a peace treaty within one year, they will have to wait several years to grab another chance. Speaking at an academic conference in Seoul, Kim suggested a special timetable for the Korean peninsula that includes the North’s denuclearization, Pyongyang-Washington, Pyongyang-Tokyo relations, a peace regime and inter-Korean relations.

According to the timetable, North Korea would be expected to disable its main nuclear facilities and report all its programs by the end of the year, as North Korean leader Kim Jong-il affirmed his will to implement the pledge during the course of the inter-Korean summit. If the United States agrees to remove North Korea from its list of state sponsors terrorism and begins to lift sanctions imposed under the Trading with the Enemy Act, the timetable showed that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice could visit North Korea in January or February.

The major hurdle will come between March and June, when North Korea would be expected to declare and send its nuclear weapons abroad. During that stage, bold give-and-take negotiations will not be likely to take place between North Korea and the United States or North Korea and Japan, Kim said.

Kim stated that attention is focused on whether U.S. President George W. Bush will propose to establish diplomatic ties with North Korea, even before the disablement of its nuclear programs is complete, in order to resolve the North’s nuclear standoff within his term. Kim claimed that the United States and North Korea could establish diplomatic ties ahead of the U.S. presidential election, slated for November 4, 2008. In addition, if Japan takes aggressive steps to thaw ties with North Korea to make a breakthrough in the abduction issue, the two nations could normalize relations in July or August next year. In advance of the possible normalization, Kim said that Japan’s Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is likely to visit North Korea in December.

If the disablement is completed and denuclearization makes progress, three or four parties could hold talks to declare the end of the Korean War or sign a formal peace treaty in July or August, Kim said. He anticipated that China, which is reported to be sensitive about the uncertainty of its involvement in the proposed talks, would take an active role in the process. Taking China’s position into account, Kim proposed that the end of the Korean War be declared by South Korea, North Korea, the United States and China. However, he also offered the possibility that the two Koreas, or the two Koreas plus the United States, would sign the peace treaty.

North Korea is in the process of changing its strategy of focusing on both Pyongyang-Washington and Seoul-Pyongyang relations, Kim said, going on to say that the North suggested only three provisions out of some 30 in last week’s joint declaration following the summit. South Korea will pick its next president on December 19 and the new president will officially take the post on February 25. As many as two months are needed for the new president to select his cabinet members after a parliamentary hearing. Therefore, Kim said, President Roh Moo-hyun’s participatory government should cooperate with the next president to cope with the change on the Korean peninsula.


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