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BEIJING - As China is expected to conduct a major reshuffle of its leadership during the 17th Communist Party Congress next week, attention is focused on whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will visit China.

Observers who expect Kim to visit China cite a recent geopolitical change in the Northeast Asian region as the primary reason for their view. North Korea is taking steps to disable its Yongbyon nuclear facilities by the end of this year. At the same time, the United States is likely to remove North Korea from its list of state sponsors terrorism. In addition, in the wake of the inter-Korean summit, held earlier this month, discussions are actively underway to establish a peace regime on the Korean peninsula, offering reasonable grounds for a trip by Kim to China.

Uncertainty about China’s involvement in the proposed talks to declare the end of the Korean War is fueling speculation that the North Korean leader will visit China. During the inter-Korean summit, the two Koreas agreed to hold talks with “three or four parties” to declare the end of the Korean War, giving rise to a need for discussions between North Korea and China. A source in Beijing said, “As one of the signatories of the cease-fire agreement, China thinks it must join the talks to declare the end of the war. North Korea needs to provide further explanation of its position and China needs to be persuaded,” the source said.

Under these circumstances, the expected change in China’s leadership could also provide extra incentive to the North Korean leader to visit Beijing. Observers say that the expected reshuffle in China, North Korea’s key ally, could heighten the need for Kim’s trip. North Korea’s Worker’s Party and China’s Communist Party, despite having had some tension between them during the Cold War era, fought together against the Japanese Imperial Army and have since maintained a solid relationship.

Of course, now is not the time for the top leaders of North Korea and China to meet because next week’s Communist Party Congress is aimed at inaugurating the second term of Chinese President Hu Jintao. History shows that the timing of Kim’s last trip to China was not coupled with a change in China’s leadership. President Hu became the party’s general secretary in 2002 and was promoted to the top post in March 2003. However, Kim visited China in April 2004.

If Kim were to visit China at this stage, the agenda could be focused on the inter-Korean summit and the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean peninsula. Kim visited China in June 2000, ahead of the first inter-Korean summit.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]