hankyoreh

Israel thought that its ongoing war on Gaza would last two or three days, but today (January 10, 2009) is the fifth. So far, Israel hasn‘t made any tangible military achievement, and has no reason to announce victory. On the other hand, the Palestinian resistance is talking about steadfastness and relentless resistance that will abort the Israeli military expedition. The war is expected to continue for few more days while tension in the whole area is mounting.

　Reasons for the war

　Israel decided to attack for the following reasons: a) to destroy Hamas, remove it from governance and bring Gaza strip back to the negotiations process; b) to destroy Hamas rocketing ability, and to destroy its capability to manufacture weapons and ammunition; c) to destroy the tunnels that the Palestinians dug so as to smuggle goods, commodities, money and arms from Egypt. The Israeli prime minister summed up the reasons by saying that Israel is seeking to change the status quo in Gaza.

　The Palestinians say that Israel and some Arab states together with the US failed in bringing Hamas to its knees through the siege, and the military expedition is their second choice.

　Where are the Arab states?

　So many Arab states are thought by the Palestinian resistance to be encouraging and inciting the Israelis to wage the attack because Hamas has not been obedient and refusing to recognize Israel. These states such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are the patrons of normalizing relations with Israel, and feel that Hamas has ruined their marsh toward solving the Palestinian question when it took over Gaza and ended the presence of the Palestinian authority which is an ally of these states.

　Apparently, these states thought that Israel would finish the job quickly, and took their time until they made an attempt toward the Security Council so as to order a cease-fire.

　Fighting modes

　Israel stated the war with heavy and tireless air bombings. On the first strike, it used 66 planes to bomb Palestinian police and security targets. This was the shock and horror strike which was meant to pull down the morale of the Palestinians. Around 300 Palestinians most of them policemen were killed in this strike. But that did not lead to the Israeli desirable results. The air strikes are still going on.

　On the 8th day of air strikes, Israel decided to go for the ground battle hoping to easily sweep the Palestinian cities. Because of the fierce resistance, Israel hasn’t achieved any significant gains so far, and its tanks could only enter empty areas where resistance is absent. Israel then tried to make incursions on the edges of Gaza city and Jabalia refugee camp, but suffered heavy losses and pulled back.

　The main problem Israel is facing is the lack of information about the kinds of weapons that the Palestinians have. The Israelis are puzzled, and they discovered in the first three days that the Palestinian resistance is much stronger than what was thought, and there is a high possibility that it owns very destructive anti tank instruments. That is why the Israelis have been hesitant in occupying the Palestinin cities.

　For the Palestinians, they are very patient, and unwilling to use their arsenal until Israel wages a major attack against the cities. So far, they have uncovered the 42 km range missile, and still promising real military surprises.

　The civilians

　Both the Palestinians and the Israelis have hit civil targets. The Palestinians have been firing missiles at Israeli towns killing three Israelis and injuring others, and the Israelis have been committing genocide in Gaza. So far, more than 700 Palestinians are killed, 46% of them are children and women. The Israelis have been targeting the civilians, and bombing houses on the heads of the inhabitants, and lately they bombed a school that is supervised by the United Nations killing 43 people and injuring others. Some Palestinian families have been wiped out such as the Rayyan family: all 15 family members have been killed. Another family of 11 people disappeared, while another family was buried underneath with one girl surviving.

　So many nations have been expressing concern about the killing of Palestinian civilians, but Israel hasn‘t being paying much attention.

　The Palestinians have been under siege for almost 18 months, and they haven’t been receiving the needed food and medicine. Now, they don‘t have electricity or food or medicine or clean water, there is real and grave human crisis in Gaza.

　General evaluation

　Israel, the US and some Arab states gave been dismayed with the poor performance of the Israeli army. The results so far haven’t been up to the expectations at all. As the war goes on, all parties interested in dismantling the Palestinian resistance including the Arab states become under increasing pressure from the mass media, the international community and the peoples of the Arab Islamic area. The Arab regimes have been facing pressure from demonstrators all over the world, and the Israeli mass media started to question the abilities of the Israeli army.

　Israel is very hesitant in entering the Palestinian population centers due to its hard experience in Lebanon in 2006. The Israelis suffered a setback and failed in achieving any of their objectives. For this new war, I don‘t think that the Israelis will win the war. The Palestinian fighters are will prepared for the war and well equipped. They are dug deep under ground and they have evaded the effects of the air strikes. Israel will continue its air strikes for few more days, but as long as it is incapable of making a major offensive that would paralyze the resistance, none of its objectives will be realized, and it will settle for something insignificant such as measures to prevent smuggling from Egypt.

　I expect Hamas to remain in tact, and it will grow more popular. Consequently, the Palestinian Authority will be a big loser, and its presence in the West bank will be challenged.