hankyoreh

By Wallace Chip Gregson
Former Assistant Secretary, Defense for Asian & Pacific Affairs
Lieutenant, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Pacific
　
Thank you for the kind introduction. It’s an honor to be able to address this symposium celebrating the 11th anniversary of the June 15th South-North Joint Declaration.
I congratulate our hosts, Incheon Metropolitan City and The Hankyoreh Foundation for Reunification and Culture. I also congratulate our organizers, the Hankyoreh Peace Research Institute, the Pacific Century Institute, and the Incheon Development Institute for their support.
I am now a former government official. The opinions expressed here are my own, and not official statements of the US Government.
The United States is an ally of the Republic of Korea. The City of Incheon - strategically located on the Yellow Sea - figures prominently in that alliance, not only as an engine of the tremendous development of Korea but also as the scene of a critical battle 61 years ago this September. We also have alliance relationships with Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia. In addition we have a network of partnerships throughout East Asia, Southeast Asia, and into South Asia and the Indian Ocean. We seek a peaceful and stable security environment that advances the interests of all. China is a key US partner in this effort, promoting peace, security, and prosperity in the region and beyond. President Hu, when last visiting the United States in January, reaffirmed China’s commitment to coordinated action in pursuit of all of our common interests.
The US-Republic of Korea relationship has grown well beyond its military origin, even as the military relationship has expanded and matured. Our relationship includes close integration and coordination in the political, economic, commercial, cultural, and social areas of national life. The US-Korea Free Trade Agreement is one tangible symbol. For another, any visit to the United States reveals the very dynamic, energetic, and successful Korean community that has become such a vital component of the national life of the United States. The Republic of Korea, in turn, hosts an incredible number of Americans pursuing all manner of interests beyond the military sphere. Our cultural differences enrich the bonds and friendship between us.
The military and security component of our alliance relationship is also expanding and changing. The armed forces of the Republic of Korea are some of the most capable in the world. I count it as a real privilege and honor to have been able to work with Korean military colleagues since 1980, when I became good friends with Korean Marine Corps officers at the US Marine Corps Command and Staff College. Working with them and new colleagues from all the Korean armed forces in exercises and drills here in Korea since that time was a professional highlight of my time in uniform. We look forward to the expansion of the role and influence of the ROK forces in regional and global security efforts.
In the past 61 years, millions and millions in Asia rose from poverty to relative prosperity. More remains to be done, for sure, but Asia‘s dynamic development raises the standard of living not only in the region, but beyond.
Yet there is one exception to this regional miracle. North Korea, with only isolated exceptions like the Kaesong Industrial Complex, steadfastly maintains its unique economic and internal population management policies despite recommendations foreconomic reform and development from their closest neighbors.
Despite the desperate needs of its people, North Korea pursues conventional military capabilities, as well as nuclear and ballistic missile programs, that threaten South Korea. As a result of recent attacks on the Korean ship Cheonan, the artillery attack on Pyeonyeong Do, and the announcement of a previously denied uranium enrichment program, President Obama and the United States reaffirmed our commitment to the security of the Republic of Korea. In support of that pledge, we enhanced our alliance defensive capabilities. One visible manifestation included an exercise by the George Washington Battle Group in the Yellow Sea. We will continue to enhance our joint training as well as our deterrence capabilities.
The United States also has a key alliance relationship with Japan. North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and capabilities, including the 1998 surprise missile launch over Honshu, can be read only one way by Japan, and in fact North Korea is Japan’s primary security issue. Unresolved kidnapping casers only heighten concern. These demonstrations and actions - and absence of progress - led to greater US-ROK-Japan cooperation and coordination. Recent military observer exchanges are a welcome development in the pursuit of regional security and stability. At a higher level, recent tri-lateral meetings of ROK and Japanese foreign ministers with the US Secretary of State signaled a new era of cooperation and coordination. Recent years have also witnessed tri-lateral defense ministers-Secretary of Defense meetings at the annual Shangri La conferences.
The United States seeks the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This is a shared goal of the international community - specifically China, Russia, Japan, and the ROK - as stated in the 2005 Joint Statement of the Six Party Talks. In addition, the United States and others strongly support the expressed opinion of the international community condemning North Korean proliferation of prohibited nuclear material as expressed in UN Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874.
A de-nuclearized Korea is a goal entirely consistent with, and a necessary condition for, the creation and expansion of that mutual trust and economic conditions, and exchanges in civic, cultural, sports, health, environmental and all other fields, called for in the Joint Declaration of 2000.
Stability is essential for peace, and prosperity. Prosperity, in turn, supports stability by improving lives and preventing the creation of displaced populations and refugee movements to neighboring areas. Human Rights are a necessary condition for both stability and the realization of economic potential, for the nation as well as individuals. Human Rights support prosperity and stability. The pursuit of these conditions that have contributed so much to this region would seem to be an obvious goal, but not all agree.
Human rights violations harm the North Korean people and violate international norms for the rule of law and respect for individual rights. Respect for human rights by North Korea will also be necessary for it to fully participate in the international community. Improvement of human rights issues by the DPRK will have a significant impact on the prospect for closer U.S.-DPRK ties.
As a first step toward our ultimate goals, North Korea should talk directly with South Korea to resolve the issues of the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of Yeongpyong Island. Successful North - South dialogue and understandings are necessary before any legitimate Six Party Talks can be held. The failure of the recent colonel-level military to military talks, when the North walked out, marked the end of a promising development.
Our conference invitation talked of turning the Yellow Sea from a “sea of conflict to a sea of peace”. One of our hosts has “Reunification” as part of its name. Predicting actions or events in North Korea has long been a difficult trade. Currently, in other parts of the world, we witness astounding events that we had long thought impossible. Facebook, the global social network so popular with younger generations, is about to achieve a worldwide membership larger than the population of China, with unpredictable effects on the formation of world opinion and the conduct of world affairs. With appropriate humility, I offer the following observations of current conditions that may or may not affect progress toward reunification.
We are told that the year 2012 will be an especially significant year. It’s the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung. It‘s also touted as the year of North Korea’s emergence as a “strong and prosperous nation”, a paradise in North East Asia. In the meantime, we know that many international agencies report severe food shortages and even famine in the wake of an unusually cold winter, as well as flooding, and outbreaks of hoof and mouth disease. Some agencies predict a famine similar to the mid-90s that killed over a million people. We know that there is no evidence of any food shortages at state receptions in Pyongyang to honor visiting dignitaries.
A range of possibilities could lead to reunification, from a so-called “soft landing” to “hard landing”. We hope for the soft landing, for some form of loose federation or confederation gradually entered. But it would be foolish and destructive to ignore planning for the harder scenarios. In the wake of some unanticipated event, the regional impact will be significant. Without sweeping, and successful, economic reform in North Korea, as urged by China among others, prompt and massive emergency aid will have to be provided to sustain an already distressed population and prevent descent into violent chaos. The Republic of Korea and its allies, specifically including the United States, must shoulder their part of the burden. Other immediately affected nations, the other members of the Six Party Process that share borders with North Korea, must also help, in the interest of humanity as well as their self-interest. If some situation led to a sudden opening, all these nations must have a plan, ready to implement, that will prevent chaos, loss of life, uncontrolled migration, and the emergence of non-state power brokers or warlords. The tragic division of Korea must not be followed by more tragedy as it comes together.　
　
Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]