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By Park Byong-su, diplomatic correspondent

Northeast Asian diplomacy is turning into a disaster area for President Lee Myung-bak.

Already on poor terms with North Korea and China, his administration now faces a rapid chill with Japan over his unannounced August 10 visit to Dokdo, leaving it on the outs with all of the major diplomatic players in the region.

Analysts said the diplomatic catastrophe was the result of ideological bias, a capricious approach to foreign relations, and a general lack of strategy.

Tokyo unilaterally postponed a finance ministers’ meeting with South Korea that had been scheduled for late August, and is reportedly considering a halt to summit meetings and senior dialogue, including shuttle diplomacy efforts and talks originally planned for next month’s APEC Summit.

Dialogue with Pyongyang has long been cut off after bristling back in the early days of the administration in 2008. Seoul recently made a private proposal to Pyongyang to stage reunions for separated families, but has failed to come up with a suitable response to its demands for a resumption of tourism at Mt. Kumgang and an end to the May 24, 2010 measures taken in the wake of the Cheonan warship sinking.

Things have also been awkward with China, with a conflict over North Korea policy arising after the 2010 sinking. Recently, discord has erupted over illegal fishing, the forcible repatriation of North Korean defectors, and torture allegations by Kim Young-hwan, a South Korean activist who was detained in the country for 114 days.

Observers pointed to the sudden disaster for relations with Tokyo, which happens with just six months remaining in Lee’s term, as particularly unexpected. The president has consistently voiced a desire to improve ties with Japan. In April 2008, he announced a return to shuttle diplomacy during a meeting with then-Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda. This past June, his administration tried to pass a military intelligence agreement with Japan quietly to avoid criticism from the public.

Many analysts said the hot and cold diplomatic approach stems from a lack of clear strategic goals and a tendency to “improvise” on certain issues depending on the political interests at play.

The Dokdo visit, for example, was a break with past precedent, as previous administrations avoided traveling to the islets.

Past problems in relations with Japan generally stemmed from Tokyo’s provocations. Feelings toward Japan went downhill in South Korea after a 2000 foreign relations blue book claimed Dokdo as Japanese territory and textbooks containing historical misrepresentations were authorized the following year. Relations with Tokyo took a dive under the Roh Moo-hyun administration when the prefecture of Shimane declared an ordinance claiming sovereignty over Dokdo.

Lee’s visit was unusual in that it came unprompted by any clear provocation by Japan. At the same time, the administration hasn’t shown any clear plans for following up on it.

A former senior foreign relations and national security official said the Lee administration’s diplomacy has been characterized by a “situational” approach of ad hoc measures without a big picture.

“It’s like watching a diplomatic roller coaster,” the official opined.

Problems are also being noted with the outdated politics informing Lee’s approach to diplomacy. Early on, he focused on “restoring” the alliance with the United States and taking a hard line on North Korea while waiting for its regime to collapse. This ended up hurting relations not just with Pyongyang but also with Beijing.

The problem was a vicious cycle: worsening ties with North Korea and China stirred up security concerns, as witnessed with the 2010 artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island, which in turn increased South Korea’s dependence on the US for protection, which then set Beijing off.

“Instead of approaching diplomatic matters in terms of the national interest, the people’s safety, lives, and peace, President Lee is looking at them through a political and moral framework of anti-communism and opposition to North Korea,” said Yonsei University professor Park Myung-lim.

With the Northeast Asian diplomacy fiasco coming so close to the end of its term, the Lee administration appears set to leave a lot of problems for the next president to solve. Whoever wins December’s election will end up tasked with building trust with Pyongyang, Beijing, and Tokyo virtually from scratch.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]