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By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

Over the next 15 to 20 years, the largest potential cause of instability in East Asia is the possible stagnation of the Chinese economy, forecasted the US’s National Intelligence Council (NIC) on Dec. 10.

In its report ‘Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds’, the NIC argues that if China suffers prolonged, severe economic stagnation, the internal strife that could arise would threaten the stability of the region as a whole. The report points to the possibility of fragmentation between the affluent eastern coastal regions and the poor internal areas. China also faces the threat of growing secession movements in regions such as Tibet and Xinjiang. The report maintained that if the Chinese leadership tries to divert domestic attention outside of the country, that could lead China to undertake more unanticipated and aggressive actions.

The report is published by the NIC and reflects the views of 16 intelligence agencies from throughout the U.S. government. The agencies offer insight into what the world will look like in 20 years time. It is published every four years to be used in long-term strategic planning in each new administration. 　

The report also pointed out that after the reunification of the Korean peninsula, Korea may attempt a strategic separation from the US, and this could become a major factor in the new order of Northeast Asia.

The report pointed to fears about the rise of China, the growing nationalism in the region and doubts about the US’s continued dominance as factors that may create tension. The report predicted that through 2030 many countries in the region will continue to develop economic ties with China while relying on the US for their security.

Four possible scenarios for order in the region are set forth. Among them are a continuance of the current international order, a balance of power, a pluralistic regional order, and a China-centric order. The “balance of power” scenario entails a situation in which the US and China compete in the region following winding down of the US’s influence. In such a scenario, many countries in the region would either develop or seek to acquire nuclear weapons to prepare for the decrease in the US’s ability to guarantee their security.

The NIC report also predicted that if India fails to grow or Japan fails to mitigate their relative decline, a China-centric power structure could come to pass. If the US’s core partner countries cannot achieve sufficient capacity and will to balance China, the U.S., as counterforce, would intervene in the situation. This could cause a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China.

When it comes to North Korea’s nuclear program the report suggested that the future of nuclear proliferation depends on the results of North Korea and Iran‘s nuclear weapons development programs. In particular, the successful development of nuclear weapons by Iran would spark an arms race in the Middle East.

The report also pointed out that as the post-Cold War international system began to transform, the possibility of conflict between states has increased. As reasons for the increased danger of conflicts, the report cited the strategic judgment of rising nations including China, desires to secure natural resources and increased availability of deadly weapons. Sometime in the next five years per capita income in China is expected to reach US$15,000 (purchasing power parity), which is thought to be the point at which popular movements towards democratization often begin, a more democratized China may become more nationalistic.

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