hankyoreh

at the White House in Washington

By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was nominated as the next Secretary of State on Dec. 1 and there is cautious speculation about what changes he might bring to the US’s North Korea policy. Not only has Kerry been a long-time advocate of direct dialogue between the U.S. and the North, but he has also shown a fairly critical attitude toward the stance the Obama administration has taken toward North Korea over the past few years.

On Jan. 7, Obama nominated former senator Chuck Hagel as Secretary of Defense. Hagel has argued in favor of diplomatic engagement with North Korea. His nomination, following Kerry’s, means that two influential positions could be held by proponents of dialogue with North Korea, indicating that the Obama administration‘s North Korea policy could shift towards a softer line.

Kerry, who has spent 27 years sitting on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is regarded as an outspoken dove, even among Democrats, and he believes the focus of U.S. foreign policy should be placed on more active dialogue and negotiations. He has also emphasized direct dialogue in U.S. policy toward North Korea. When he ran as the Democratic candidate for U.S. president in 2004, he said that he was willing to have two-party talks with North Korea at any time if necessary.

Kerry is particularly critical of the Obama administration’s so-called “strategic patience” approach, which requires the North to take sincere steps toward denuclearization before the U.S. engages in discussion. In a seminar held in Congress in July 2010, Kerry said that “strategic patience” must not become “strategic indifference,” arguing, “a policy of continuous diplomatic engagement is the best way to persuade the North.”

In an op-ed that Kerry wrote for the Los Angeles Times in June 2012, he described the Obama administration’s policy toward the North as both “measured but firm” and “inadequate.”

Since it won’t be easy to resume the six-party talks, Kerry said, “The best alternative is for the United States to engage North Korea directly.”

“Inaction only invites a dangerous situation to get worse,” he added.

Dec 21. (AP)

Another factor increasing the likelihood of change in American policy toward the North is the fact that the “strategic patience” approach was largely crafted by outgoing secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

“North Korea policy during Obama’s first term reflected the conservative position of Hillary Clinton,” said Park Han-shik, an expert on U.S. and North Korea relations at the University of Georgia, in a recent interview with the Hankyoreh. “If Kerry becomes secretary of state, we will see significant changes.”

In the near term, the first changes may well be new sanctions against North Korea in reaction to its recent long-range missile launch.

Currently, the U.S. is working through the UN Security Council, asking for China’s help in passing tougher sanctions. But if the multilateral sanctions eventually approved by the Security Council don’t have a strong enough bite, the US has indicated it will resort to unilateral sanctions in consultation with relevant countries.

However, if John Kerry and others assume high positions in the US State Department, the new diplomatic approach may have an effect on the sanctions leveled against the North. Certainly, the likelihood of direct dialogue between North Korea and the US will increase if Kerry assumes leadership of the State Department. But it still seems inevitable that it will take some time for this vision to become a reality.

“Since at present the U.S. is in a position where it must respond to North Korea’s missile launch, it would be difficult to engage in dialogue with the North yet,” said Scott Snyder, a senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations. “However, it’s possible that a dialogue could begin once some time has passed after sanctions are put into place.”

However, there are several factors that could frustrate these optimistic expectations. First is the fact that the Korean issue has moved lower on the list of U.S. foreign policy priorities. The issues that the U.S. media is identifying as major tasks that Kerry must deal with include Iran’s nuclear program, peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine, Assad’s regime in Syria, and concluding the war in Afghanistan.

Another key question is how much leeway Kerry will have inside the basic policy framework laid out by Obama’s existing diplomacy and security teams. While Clinton may be on her way out, another heavyweight in the area is Thomas Donilon, national security advisor for the White House. According to the New York Times, it is very likely that Donilon will keep his position for another year and then make way for Susan Rice, currently the American ambassador to the U.N. Both Donilon and Rice are regarded as taking a comparatively hard line on North Korea.

One final variable is what may happen in the ongoing political struggle with the Republican Party. Depending on the political climate, fear of a backlash from the Republicans may well prevent anyone from making the risky move of engaging in dialogue with North Korea.

In addition to Secretary of State, another key appointment to watch is the assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, the position in the U.S. State Department with the greatest responsibility for diplomacy in Asia. Two people likely to be considered for this position are Michael Schiffer, Kerry’s advisor on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, and Daniel Russel, senior advisor on Asian affairs to the National Security Council.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]