hankyoreh

July 18. The protestors are calling on the South Korean government to go ahead with the currently scheduled Dec. 2015 transfer. (by Kim Jeong-hyo

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer, Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter and Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

It is expected that South Korea’s request that the transfer of wartime operational control be delayed again will have a negative influence on several projects that are tied up in US and Korean interests. These projects include the next-generation jet fighter project and the defense cost-sharing negotiations.

If the US uses its agreement to delay the transfer of operational control as leverage to ask for concessions from Korea on a variety of issues, Korea may find itself in an even more difficult asymmetrical position where it may be hard to refuse these requests.

Indeed, a similar controversy erupted in 2010, when the transfer was delayed for the first time under then-president Lee Myung-bak.

At the time, the South Korean government began seriously pushing for the transfer of control to be delayed after the sinking of the Cheonan warship in March 2010. At a summit three months later, the US and Korea agreed to delay the transfer of operational control to Korea from April 2012 to Dec. 2015.

After this, Korea sped up the supplemental negotiations for the KORUS FTA, and in December of the same year, Korea agreed to the renegotiated document, which made additional concessions in the areas of automobiles and beef.

Even at that time, there was suspicion that Korea had signed agreements that were favorable to the US because the Americans had agreed to delay the transfer of operational control.

The US has not yet offered any official response to Korea’s proposal to again delay the transfer of operational control. On July 16, the top-ranking US Pentagon official who disclosed that Korea had made this proposal simply said that the US was “reviewing the matter with the South Korean government.”

The US government has also not yet clearly defined its internal position on the issue, sources say.

“I have been told that the US government has not yet made a decision,” one diplomatic source said on condition of anonymity. “For now, the government seems to feel neither positively or negatively about the idea of delaying the transfer again.”

However, the fact that a top-ranking official in the US Department of Defense leaked a key security issue to the Korean public could be an attempt to sound out public opinion.

The project that will be immediately affected by Korea’s proposal to delay the transfer is the negotiations about the US-ROK defense cost-sharing agreement, which are supposed to be wrapped up before the end of this year.

Reports indicate that the US is currently asking South Korea to increase its share of the non-personnel stationing costs for US forces in Korea (all costs for keeping the forces in Korea except for paying the personnel) from 40-45% to a minimum of 50%.

If Korea accepts this request, it is expected that the Korean costs will increase from 869.5 billion won this year to more than 1 trillion won (US$890 million) per year after this year.

South Korea insists that it will defend its national interest in the negotiations. But if the US pushes hard using the second delay of the transfer of operational control as an excuse, South Korea may end up in a position where it is difficult to keep saying no.

It is also likely that this will help the US gain more traction in the purchasing project for the next-generation fighter project, which costs 8.3 trillion won. South Korea is planning to buy 60 high-tech jet fighters through the project.

There are three companies that have placed bids: Lockheed-Martin in the US with the F-35A, Boeing with the F-15SE, and the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company with the Eurofighter Typhoon.

Initially, the plan was to select the final fighter before the end of this month, but the bidding collapsed when all of the companies involved offered prices that exceeded the South Korean government’s budget.

The Defense Project Promotion Committee is planning to reassess the status of the project on July 25.

At first, there were expectations that US planes would have the advantage in the bidding because of their interoperability in combined operations between the US and South Korea.

Now, as the move to delay the transfer of operational control strengthens the position of the American firms, there are growing concerns that it will become more difficult for South Korea to demand that prices be adjusted or that technology transfers be included when the bidding process resumes.

There are also those who think that it is becoming more likely that Korea will end up selecting the F-35, which is still being developed.

The US could also put even more pressure on Korea to take part in its missile defense program. South Korea has refused to participate in the program, judging that the US-led missile defense system is not appropriate for the security situation on the Korean peninsula, while also concerned that it could provoke China.

But during the summit with South Korean President Park Geun-hye on May 7, US President Barack Obama urged Korea to participate in the missile defense program. “Guided by our joint vision, we’re investing in the shared capabilities and technologies and missile defenses that allow our forces to operate and succeed together,” Obama said.

Park did not mention missile defense at the time. However, it seems likely that US requests for South Korean participation in the program will become even more forceful if the transfer of operational control is delayed once again.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]