US and South Korea agreed to “tailored deterrence strategy” at meeting in Seoul

Posted on : 2013-10-03 15:03 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Experts suggest such a strategy could actually increase threat of nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula

By Choi Hyun-joon, staff reporter

The sixth item in the Oct. 2 joint communique by the South Korean and US Defense Ministers at the annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) was a “tailored deterrence strategy” for the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Its adoption is significant in that it develops and codifies the US’s abstract promise of a nuclear umbrella into an actual operational plan.

But it could increase the chances of a nuclear conflict, since it also contains provisions for a “preemptive response” to the detection of signs of the use of nuclear weapons.

South Korean and US military authorities had discussed introducing a tailored strategy by 2014 at last year’s SCM. Its inclusion this year puts it a year ahead of schedule. Minister of National Defense Kim Kwan-jin said the goal was to “effectively deter the North Korean nuclear threat, which has become a more realistic concern with its third nuclear test [in February].”

The strategy identifies plans of response for both sides to three stages of North Korean nuclear weapon capabilities: threat, signs of imminent usage, and usage.

“This strategy establishes a strategic alliance framework for tailoring deterrence against key North Korean nuclear threat scenarios across armistice and wartime, and strengthens the integration of alliance capabilities to maximize their deterrence effects,” the communique said.

This means that the two militaries would be mobilizing all available forces to respond actively to a North Korean nuclear threat.

Tailored deterrence includes three core elements: the US nuclear umbrella, the two sides’ conventional military power, and missile defense. Key to these are the “kill chain” and “KAMD,” which President Park Geun-hye said South Korea planned to “establish as soon as possible” in remarks the previous day.

The kill chain is a system for attacking nuclear weapons and missiles prior to launch, while the Korean missile defense system is for intercepting them after launch. Establishing both of them would cost an estimated 9.6 trillion won (US$8.9 billion) over the next five years.

“Having a kill chain requires a number of different capabilities, including detection, interception, confirmation, and additional defense,” said Kim Jong-dae, editor-in-chief of the defense journal Defense 21+. “At the moment, it’s not even clear that the South Korean military has the first of these, the detection capabilities.”

Cheong Wook-sik, director of the Peace Network, worried that the plan could increase the risk of a nuclear war on the peninsula.

“The two sides may be able to strengthen their alliance and their deterrent against North Korea with a tailored deterrence strategy, but North Korea is also going to step up its nuclear and missile capabilities,” he said. “This could end up increasing the threat of a war on the Korean Peninsula.”

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

button that move to original korean article (클릭시 원문으로 이동하는 버튼)

Related stories