hankyoreh

By Kim Kyu-won, Kim Su-heon, staff reporters and Seok Jin-hwan, Blue House correspondent

The South Korean government appears poised to declare a new Korean air defense identification zone (KADIZ) this week that includes Ieo Island. It also formally announced plans to enter negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with an “expression of interest” in joining last week.

The two items may seem unrelated, but the overlapping time frame and the fact that both concern China could affect South Korea’s future diplomatic strategy in Northeast Asia.

On the afternoon of Dec. 1, the Blue House held a national security policy coordination meeting presided over by national security office chief Kim Jang-soo and attended by the heads of the relevant ministries. The focus of the discussion was on deciding a new KADIZ. It now appears likely that the expanded zone will be announced sometime this week following discussions between the government and the ruling Saenuri Party (NFP).

Seoul appears to be left with no other cards to play after Beijing rejected any discussion of the issue during a Nov. 28 strategic dialogue between the two countries‘ deputy defense ministers. While some have advocated waiting to see what additional KADIZ announcements China makes for the West (Yellow) Sea before responding, the Blue House and the Ministry of National Defense are maintaining that South Korea cannot stand by while the areas it sees as part of its ADIZ are being repeatedly violated.

“China was first to violate South Korea’s KADIZ, so now South Korea is announcing a new ADIZ in line with its own national interests,” said ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok.

“Since we have de facto jurisdiction over Ieo Island, not to mention its airspace, the best approach would be to make the ADIZ coincide with the flight information region (FIR), which includes it,” he added.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Cho Tae-young argued that the move was inevitable. “Obviously, our relationship with China is important, but we are obligated to respond in this way,” he said. “We are proceeding according to our own needs and national interests.”

Regarding the expanded KADIZ, both spokesmen noted that a basis for the FIR exists in international law, but none exists for the operational zone. The argument is that it makes more sense to assert the grounds of the FIR.

The government is reportedly set to announce a plan for including Ieo Island in the Korean Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) as early as the beginning of this week. Three plans are said to be under consideration - all of them would include Ieo Island in the zone, the only difference being in how far they would extend the waters to the south of it. The decision appears likely to be based on factors such as the possibility of objections from Beijing and Tokyo.

But some experts have expressed concern that such an expansion, coming on the heels of China’s own unilateral announcement of an expanded ADIZ, stands to disrupt the regional balance.

“We can’t just do nothing, but the worry is that such a response will trigger a vicious cycle for South Korea, China, and Japan,” said Yun Duk-min, chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

“We ought to try to find a solution through more dialogue between the parties. China is the one that first raised the issue, so I’d like to see it playing a more positive role,” Yun advised.

Lee Jang-hee, a professor at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said Washington’s Northeast Asia policy was partly to blame.

“The South Korean and Japanese air defense identification zones were first drawn by the US,” Lee said, “and the recent problems started when the US turned Japan into its proxy in Northeast Asia.”

Last October, the US acknowledged Japan’s right to collective self-defense during a Security Consultative Committee (“2+2”) meeting. Lee voiced concern that South Korea, already on bad terms with North Korea and Japan, could end up falling out with China too over the KADIZ issue.

Other analysts worried that the issue could ignite a new regional conflict, stirring up jingoism and nationalist sentiments in the three countries.

“Ieo Island isn’t ‘territory,’ but the ADIZ issue is being presented as though it were a territorial issue,” said Kim Jong-dae, editor-in-chief of the journal Defense 21+. “It‘s very difficult to negotiate on territorial issues because concessions are seen as being out of the question.”

Kim added that it was a “diplomatic mistake” for China to bring South Korea and the US into the issue along with Japan with its own ADIZ announcement.

South Korean participation in the TPP could damage relations with China. Lee Jang-hee said the matter should have first been discussed with China, which is South Korea’s number one trading partner. “China may see the TPP as the US having its partners in the region do its work,” Lee said.

“South Korea’s participation here is quite sudden,” he added. “There should be coordination with China beforehand. South Korea doesn’t have a lot of friends, diplomatically speaking, so if it loses China it’s going to be at a disadvantage every time there’s a conflict in Northeast Asia.”

Meanwhile, the South Korean government argued that the time has come to make an announcement on joining the TPP. “This is our last opportunity to take part,” said Cho Tae-young. “The announcement was based on our needs,” he added. “This wasn’t something where we were taking the US or China into account.”

Yun Duk-min agreed with the decision. “We have free trade with the European Union and the US, and we’re considering signing agreements with China and Japan,” he said. “I hope we’re not going to be so conscious of China that it ends up influencing our decisions on expanding free trade.”

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]