hankyoreh

By Park Byong-su and Choi Hyun-june, staff reporters

The rocky political situation in Northeast Asia in the wake of China’s announcement of a new air defense identification zone (ADIZ) looks set to hit a critical moment this week.

With US Vice President Joseph Biden arriving on Dec. 2 for visits to Japan, China and South Korea, experts are already making predictions about a resolution to the military standoff between China on one side and the US and Japan on the other.

But with the US also looking likely to use Biden’s visit to demand more South Korean coordination with it and Japan, some experts are worried that Seoul could face a crucial choice in its efforts to achieve “balanced diplomacy” with Washington and Beijing.

Most experts stressed the importance of striking a kind of balance for the South Korean national interest, rather being pushed into an either-or decision between the Washington-Japan or China side. Since China’s move is directed at Japan and its alliance with the US rather than at South Korea, the argument is that South Korea has no reason to step into the fray.

Cho Se-young, a Dongseo University professor who served as director-general of the East Asia bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, urged Seoul to find a “suitable balance.”

“Questions certainly are being raised about whether this kind of ‘tightrope diplomacy’ is going to work, but we can’t just toe the line for one side or the other when our national interests are at stake,” Cho said.

While he agreed on the need for cooperation with the US and Japan as important partners in national security, Cho also noted the limits to this approach.

“It’s not in our national interest to view every issue in terms of those frameworks [of South Korea-US and South Korea-US-Japan relations] and take sides,” Cho stressed.

Pusan National University professor Cha Chang-hoon said it would be “a mistake” in terms of long-term peace and stability in Northeast Asia to respond to China’s rise with a stronger three-way alliance with Japan and the US.

“As far as the standoff between the US and China goes, South Korea has a limited role, but it needs to play the role of mediator rather than having a stronger alliance with the US be the answer to everything,” he said.

This argument is also why some experts are characterizing South Korea’s recent announcement of intent to take part in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as ill-timed.

“The TPP is about economic cooperation under US leadership and keeping China in check, and there are some questions about whether we really need to make a decision at such a sensitive moment,” said Kim Joon-hyung, a professor at Handong Global University.

But some experts are stressing the need to preserve the alliance with the US as South Korea’s most pivotal security relationship. Choi Kang, Vice President of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, advised “jettisoning our vague fantasies about China and stepping up our coordination with the US, while saying what needs to be said to China.”

“In security terms, we have no choice but to rely on the alliance with the US,” Choi added.

Experts were divided on whether the government’s current plans to extend its ADIZ are a good idea. Kang Hyo-baek, a professor at Kyung Hee University, said the ADIZ should be extended to include Ieo Island, Hong Island in South Gyeongsang Province, and the area around Mara Island. “We’ve been talking over the years about how we have de facto jurisdiction over Ieo Island, so it doesn’t make sense to leave it out of the ADIZ,” Kang argued.

Kang went on to say that China has “no reason or excuse for opposing” an expanded South Korean ADIZ, since its aim in designating its own was to shake up the current power structure.

“What we should be doing is extending our ADIZ to airspace that is understood to be part of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ),” he said.

Other analysts advised a more considered and careful approach to ensure the national interests are met. “This is not something for us to react to off the cuff,” said Cha Chang-hoon. “It’s not too late for us to wait and watch the situation instead of getting into a blinking contest with China.”

Cho Se-young agreed that a decision on expanding the ADIZ should wait until the situation has been fully assessed. “There are gains and losses at stake here,” he said. “If you consider things dispassionately, Ieo Island isn’t our territory or our territorial airspace. There haven’t been any practical problems with South Korea setting up and managing an ocean research station there, even though it’s part of Japan’s ADIZ.”

Experts also said Seoul should try its best to solve the problem diplomatically first. The reasoning is that such efforts would need to come first for South Korea to head off Chinese and Japan objections to an expanded ADIZ and ensure the best possible outcome for the national interest.

“The first thing we need to do is propose dialogue to settle this issue with China and Japan,” said Hong Hyun-ik, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute. “It would be great if this situation could serve to get the three countries talking.”

“China and Japan would also have less of an excuse for objecting if we go through this kind of diplomatic procedure before expanding the ADIZ,” he added.

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